A lot of bitcoiners are bearish. Some are even worse – apathetic. Yet, when FTX imploded and bitcoin fell to $16,000, many thought bitcoin might not have a future at all. Exchanges were going bankrupt left and right, and the rest of the financial market was happy to poke fun.Yet bitcoin came roaring back to all time highs.So you ask the perennial question: is this time different? We would humbly assert that it is not. Against bitcoin's own history, this cycle's drawdown is a walk in the park. Previous cycles handed holders peak-to-trough declines of 80% and more. This one, in the $60,000 range, doesn’t come close. One explanation for the difference is that bitcoin has recently achieved sufficient liquidity that, along with dampened volatility has contributed to a rising floor price. None of this existed in 2018, and it barely existed even in 2022.Sentiment data tells the same story from the opposite direction. On the Bitcoin Dialectic podcast this week, Michael Sullivan walked through his work on gauging investor sentiment where he crawled X to map the moods of various cohorts of bitcoiners against price. The read right now is striking: anger among accounts associated with retail investment is at an all-time high, and it is coupled with unusually high conviction. People are not just bearish; they are certain they are bearish. At the same time, the cohorts with the best and longest track records in bitcoin commentary — the OGs, the pragmatists, the accounts that stay muted at tops and calm at bottoms — are quietly optimistic. As Sullivan put it, "the time to be optimistic is when people are really annoyed and angry and bearish, especially when coupled with conviction."Sentiment is interesting, but the reason to stay bullish is structural. Roughly $500 trillion of the world's financial assets are parked in bonds and money — fixed income and M2 — earning a modest nominal return in exchange for minimal risk.I’m sick of it. The Bitcoin gloom and disappointment. Don’t you see what is underway?
The Worst Bear Market Ever
Times like these are when you should lean in, not the other way around
Bitcoin $60K drawdown mild vs history (80%+ prior); United Texas Bank gets OCC charter with AI payments; Ledn closes S&P bond. Banking competes for bitcoin customers; retail adoption accelerates (Cash App 59M users, 300x lending growth potential)—expect enterprise fintech pivots.











