Steve Hilton, Xavier Becerra, and Tom Steyer compete for the top two spots in California's complicated and closely-watched gubernatorial primary.Show Caption
Xavier Becerra, Steve Hilton, and Tom Steyer are the leading candidates in California's crowded gubernatorial primary.Analysts believe about 15% of the vote is needed for the top two candidates to advance to the November general election.Recent polls show a tight race, with Becerra now slightly ahead of Hilton with Steyer close behind.Low voter turnout as well as a large number of undecided voters could significantly impact the primary's outcome.California elections can be, well, complicated.Voters are seeing 61 gubernatorial candidates on their ballots in the state's crowded, closely-watched nonpartisan "jungle" primary on June 2. The two leading vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, will advance to the general election in November.Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News contributor endorsed by President Donald Trump, seemed likely to make the cut based on earlier polls.But the latest figures show Xavier Becerra, the former Health and Human Services Secretary, surging ahead of a packed group of Democratic candidates. Billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer is trailing closely behind.If one of them faces Hilton this fall, he will be the heavy favorite to lead the nation’s most populous state, which consistently favors Democrats.Though Hilton has topped in many polls for months, according to a Public Policy Institute of California poll released May 27, Becerra leads the field at 23%, followed by Hilton at 20% and Steyer third with 15%.A University of California, Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll on May 29 has Becerra at 25%, Hilton second, 21%, and Steyer within striking distance at 19%. A third poll, the Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics released the next day, has Becerra at 28%, Steyer at 22%, and Hilton a close third at 21%, raising the slight possibility of two Democrats making it to the general election if Steyer surpasses Hilton.About 1 in 4 voters are still undecided, according to polls, further adding to the intrigue."I think Steyer has more than a shot of winning a spot," said Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., a Sacramento-based bipartisan voter data firm. "I don't think this race is over by any stretch."David McCuan, a longtime political science professor at Sonoma State University, counters, "Steyer is nipping at their heels, but he might not get enough votes to push through."With Gov. Gavin Newsom termed out in January after eight years in office, Becerra could be California's first elected Latino governor in more than a century. Hilton could be the state's first Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger was in office from 2003 to 2011.Yet, traditionally low voter turnout is even lower this year than in previous primaries as mostly Democratic voters are holding on to their ballots longer, hoping to get some signs from top state lawmakers on whom to pick, Mitchell said."The California electorate has not embraced this race, so this could be a vote for the lesser of two evils," said Brian Sobel, a veteran political analyst in the San Francisco Bay Area. "This is a big field, and voters are not really thrilled with anybody."Can the front-runners maintain momentum?Whoever becomes California's future governor will manage a state with a roughly $4 trillion economy, the world's fourth-largest. They will alsotake over the role of managing California's multibillion-dollar debt, Medicaid access amid federal spending cuts, high housing costs and homelessness, and the persistent crisis of wildfire prevention and recovery.One in 8 Americans live in California, and nearly half of its registered voters are Democrats; a quarter of residents identify as Republicans. The remaining voters call themselves independents or have "no party preference," the Public Policy Institute of California said.California's national political influence is enormous. Presidents Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon both came from there, as did the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee, former Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris and Newsom are the presumptive leading contenders for the 2028 Democratic nomination, according to polls and pundits. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi also hails from San Francisco.Despite their influence, none of those current national big names with California ties have endorsed anyone for governor. Former influential San Francisco Mayor and longtime California State Assembly Speaker Willie Brown endorsed Steyer, and, although she's not local, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Massachusetts, endorsed former Congresswoman Katie Porter, her protege in the U.S. House of Representatives and her former student at Harvard Law School.Democratic state leaders, including California Democratic Party chair Rusty Hicks, worried for months that a split field on their side would lead to an all-Republican general election. But they are breathing easier as recent polls show Becerra emerging after former U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell departed from the race in April over allegations of sexual assault and misconduct, which he denies.“We are clearly in a different place today than we were two months ago. Some candidates are surging and consolidating, others are following behind,” Hicks told reporters after the last state Democratic Party-sponsored poll was released May 19. It showed Hilton ahead of Becerra by just 1%. Craig DeLuz, director of communications for the California Republican Assembly, had told USA TODAY he hoped for an all-GOP general election with so many Democratic candidates splitting the vote. Now, DeLuz just wants to make sure Hilton nabs one of those top two spots, especially after intense sparring with fading Republican candidate Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco."My question is, after all of the nastiness, can we come behind one candidate?" DeLuz said, referring to Hilton and Bianco. "And if we don’t, the Democratic candidate is sure to win."Low voter turnout could determine outcomeCalifornia primaries traditionally have low voter turnout. Fewer than 40% of the state's 23 million registered voters are expected to participate on June 2, Political Data Inc.'s Mitchell told USA TODAY.Democratic voters, especially women, are returning ballots at lower rates compared with the state’s last midterm election in 2022, reflecting an uncertainty over their options, Mitchell said. Insights from Political Data show 44% of the ballots returned through May 27 have come from registered Democrats, compared with 53% at the same point four years ago. Republicans have accounted for 35% of ballots returned, up from their 26% share in 2022.Mitchell said with so many Democratic gubernatorial candidates, voters are holding on to their ballots longer, hoping to get some signs from top state lawmakers on whom to pick. He compares it to Rep. Jim Clyburn’s endorsement of Joe Biden before the 2020 South Carolina Democratic primary, which was widely seen as the turning point of the presidential race."Democratic voters here are still waiting for somebody to tell them, 'This is the candidate that we’re going with.' That’s what happened in South Carolina in 2020 when Biden became their pick," Mitchell said. "In California, it's not a question of whether these primary voters will participate in the primary but who they will pick after this long and tedious campaign."Dizzying debates offered no knockoutsIn a series of California gubernatorial debates spanning several weeks, as many as eight candidates, including low-polling Democratic candidates San José Mayor Matt Mahan, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, took the stage, almost requiring a scorecard to keep track.No candidate had a major breakthrough as they lobbed accusations at one another, often exceeding the time limits and causing frequent disruptions.“There's no one that you could say really won the debates this year,” said Thad Kousser, a University of California, San Diego political science professor. "This is a field (of candidates) where there's probably no generationally talented politician, and it's also a group of people that voters are just starting to get to know, and so we just haven't seen a single one emerge."How Becerra, Steyer and Hilton emerged as the leading contendersIn April, Becerra suddenly became what McCaun describes as the "Democrat by default" after Swalwell’s dramatic departure. Before then, Becerra's candidacy was flailing and he was polling in single digits.But he remained steady, leaned on his experience and steadily climbed in the polls. With a focus on lowering the cost of health care, housing, child care and utilities, and fighting Trump, Becerra, who also served in Congress for more than 20 years, has capitalized on loyal Democratic voters, Latinos and even those with no party preference, Hicks, the California Democratic Party chair, told USA TODAY last month."He's a safe pick," said McCaun, the Sonoma State professor, about Becerra, who was the first Latino to serve on the powerful Ways and Means Committee and as Chairman of the House Democratic Caucus.Sobel adds that there's also indifference toward Becerra."People feel ok about the guy. They're not over the moon about him, and they don’t dislike him," Sobel said. "That can't be said about Tom Steyer; you either like him or you don’t, and that's basically the same with Katie Porter. Becerra simply doesn’t draw that kind of emotional or visceral response."Steyer has drawn support with his progressive platform, which includes a proposal to eliminate corporate tax loopholes."Steyer was moving more to the left because he wanted to edge out Katie Porter," McCuan said, referring to the left-leaning former congresswoman who also is running for governor. "It worked."Hilton, who was buoyed by Trump's endorsement, wants to "end the one-party rule" of Democrats in California and reverse state policies on energy and crime. He emerged ahead of Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco."Hilton and Bianco say the same thing, but he says it without Bianco’s histrionics," McCuan said.Top Dems trade blows over campaign cashWith California's status as the biggest state in the country, any campaign comes with a high cost, and this year’s gubernatorial contest is no different.At nearly $316 million, it's already the most expensive governor's race on record and the fifth-most expensive non-presidential race on record for ad spending, according to AdImpact, a media-tracking firm.In terms of spending, Steyer, a former hedge fund manager, is the unquestioned king. He has committed more than $200 million of his own money (and counting) toward ads across various media platforms as of May 29, AdImpact reported.That has some opponents accusing him of trying to "buy the governor's office," but almost $32 million has been spent in ads attacking Steyer, too, AdImpact noted.Other candidates are getting a deluge of campaign cash, too.Mahan has seen about $35 million from outside groups, including several Silicon Valley tech investors who encouraged him to run. Becerra has also benefited from outside contributions to the tune of about $24 million.Steyer has responded by suggesting voters should pay close attention to the corporations supporting Becerra, his chief Democratic rival in the polls."The corporate money flowing into this election tells you all you need to know: Chevron, PG&E and Meta are supporting Xavier Becerra because he represents more of the same − promising change while taking money from the same people blocking it," Steyer said in a May 27 post on X.But Becerra hasn’t allowed the billionaire candidate to own this space on the campaign trail. He regularly touts being the son of Mexican-American parents who came to California "with $12 in their pocket" in contrast to Steyer's immense wealth."Tom Steyer made his billions off oil and coal," Becerra, also a former California attorney general, said in a social media post. "I made my career taking them to court … and winning."Can overexposure prove costly for Steyer?Steyer, however, could also be a victim of overexposure, flooding the state with his repetitive barrage of "fiery, angry man" ads, Sobel said."Maybe Steyer has been too present, even for those who really initially liked his message, until it became: 'OK, Tom, I’ve heard it. I get it,'” Sobel said. "When you see somebody’s face every three minutes, it’s like, 'Hey, can you back off a bit?'" Sobel does credit Steyer with getting Oscar-winning actress and longtime environmental advocate Jane Fonda to narrate one of his ads, as well as fellow actor Jon Hamm in another spot to present "a softer approach."Otherwise, McCuan, the Sonoma State professor, compares Becerra to "a slow-moving tortoise and Steyer has been the twitchy hare" in this race."Becerra is a known commodity with the California Democratic delegation; he's been plodding along for a long time," said McCuan, who's in Heidelberg, Germany, discussing the state of American politics and the upcoming midterm elections."Steyer is an excellent issues candidate, the organizations, the work he’s done on climate and affordability," McCuan said. "But he's not a guy who commands the room or works every rubber chicken dinner at every county Democratic feed, like Becerra. And that could be the big difference in this race."
