After seven years of near-misses and frustrating postseason exits, the Carolina Hurricanes and coach Rod Brind’Amour finally broke through the door in the Eastern Conference and made their first Stanley Cup Final in 20 years. The only thing standing in their way now: A white-hot Vegas Golden Knights team that has looked nearly unbeatable under interim coach John Tortorella.The series begins on Tuesday night in Raleigh.While it may not have the classic, marquee franchises that will grab the attention of casual fans and non-fans, it should still be an incredible series between two teams playing elite hockey that have mostly steamrolled their way here.Carolina enters the series on one of the great playoff runs in the modern era and as a slight favorite (-145 on BetMGM, -154 on FanDuel and -155 on DraftKings). Since the NHL switched its playoff format to four best-of-seven series, the Hurricanes are the first team to enter the Final with a 12-1 record. Their only loss this postseason was Game 1 of the Eastern Conference final against the Montreal Canadiens, and that game came after a nearly two-week layoff as they waited for their next opponent.
They swept Ottawa in Round 1, swept Philadelphia in Round 2 and after dropping that Game 1 to the Canadiens, they ripped off four more consecutive wins.It’s been a completely dominant run that’s featured balanced scoring, lock-down defensive play and sensational goaltending (when needed, which hasn’t been often) from Frederik Andersen.Carolina is not only out-scoring teams by a 42-21 margin in the playoffs, it also has a 60 percent expected goal share (via Natural Stat Trick).They are not just out-scoring teams, they are completely smothering them. That was especially true against Montreal in the Eastern Conference final when they held the Canadiens to just 55 shots on goal (total) over the final three games of the series.Vegas has a similarly dominant goal-edge (58-38) but has not pushed play from an expected goal and scoring chance share to the same degree. The Golden Knights come into the series with a 53.9 percent expected goal share. While that is still an outstanding number (third-best in the league this postseason) it is still a significant step below what Carolina has done.That is potentially important because in eight of the past 10 Stanley Cup Final series, the team that entered with the better expected goals share ended up winning the Cup. The only two exceptions were the 2019 St. Louis Blues and the 2017 Pittsburgh Penguins.Carolina has also played three fewer games than Vegas has over the first three rounds. The playoffs are a grind after an 82-game regular season. Any additional time off or rest advantage is going to play some factor.That’s not to say Vegas (+120 on BetMGM, +128 on FanDuel, +130 on DraftKings) doesn’t have a chance here.The Golden Knights have not only been a completely different team since the hiring of Tortorella, going on a 19-4-1 run including the playoffs, they just swept the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Colorado Avalanche in four games. They also have one big ingredient that Carolina does not have: star-power.Stanley Cup winning teams typically have a superstar (or two) at the top of their roster, and the Golden Knights have a couple of them in Mitch Marner and Jack Eichel.The Brind’Amour-era Hurricanes have been a team where the whole tends to be greater than the sum of its parts. The lack of a true, game-breaking superstar who can take over games has been one of their big Achilles heels come playoff time, especially deeper into the postseason when the competition gets tougher. While this Hurricanes team does have a few more difference-makers than recent seasons, it does not really have anybody that is on the same tier as Marner and Eichel.Marner enters the series not only as the leading scorer in the NHL this postseason (21 points in 16 games), he is also the leading favorite for the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP (+150 on BetMGM, +165 on DraftKings, +190 on FanDuel).Andersen, thanks to his .931 save percentage, best among goalies with at least five games played this postseason, and three playoff shutouts, is second.Eichel, who has already helped lead Vegas to one championship, is the second-leading scorer in the playoffs (18 total points) and is between +1500 and +1800 in the Conn Smythe odds.If Vegas wins, Marner would be the likely pick given his point production and the redemption narrative that is being built for him this postseason after so many disappointing playoff runs in Toronto.While Andersen has the best odds on the Carolina side, not to mention fantastic individual numbers, Taylor Hall (+600 or +650) would probably edge him out given his point production and overall impact. Do not overlook Logan Stankoven (+850 or +900) given the fact he already has nine goals in 13 games, including three game-winning goals.
