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State Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin), left, and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, right. Photos: Jason Fochtman/Houston Chronicle and Smiley N. Pool/The Dallas Morning News, via Getty Images

With Ken Paxton's GOP primary win this week, Democrats now have the Republican Senate candidate, tactically speaking, they were hoping for.

Why it matters: A Talarico win would give the Democrats an unexpected seat in their quest to retake the Senate — and potentially move Texas into the battleground column for 2028, a seismic reordering of the national electoral landscape.