SummaryOil jumps on Iran announcing halt to all exchanges with US, citing Israeli aggression in Lebanon.Iran overnight initiated fresh attacks on neighboring Kuwait and even released video showing footage of a ballistic missile launch.The US bombed radar & drone sites in Iran in response to the Iranians having shot down a US drone over the weekend. Reports of foreign jets over Iranian airspace.Iran negotiator Ghalibaf charges US with breaking the ceasefire: "the naval blockade and escalation of war crimes in Lebanon" were "clear evidence of US noncompliance with the ceasefire."Yemen's Houthis warn they are ready to join Hezbollah's military efforts against Israel.Trump Truth Social: "Just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end - it always does!"US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Yes 39% · No 62%View full market & trade on Polymarket * * *State Media: Iran Stops Exchanging Messages with USMerely last week, Western MSM press reports were touting the usual 'close to a deal' headlines, but this morning demonstrates how illusory such claims were and are, as Iranian state media now suggests a total halt in communications between the sides.Per state Tasnim, "Iran stops exchanging messages with the US in protest against Zionist crimes." This as the IDF has sent ground forces deep into Lebanon, past the Litani River - in the deepest operation in decades. Tehran has insisted on linking up any US-Iran deal with a Israel-Lebanon peace. Tehran is now warning to "completely block the Strait of Hormuz, including the Bab al-Mandab Strait" - the latter with the cooperation of Yemen's Houthis. Below is the full translated statement:• "The determination of the Iranian armed forces and all axes of the resistance front to respond to Zionist crimes and open new fronts".• "Tasnim has obtained information indicating that, given the continuation of the Zionist regime's crimes in Lebanon and considering that Lebanon was one of the preconditions for the ceasefire and that this ceasefire has now been violated on all fronts, including Lebanon, the Iranian negotiating team is stopping "talks and exchange of texts through a mediator"."• "The immediate cessation of the Zionist regime's aggressive and brutal army operations in Gaza and Lebanon and the necessity of the regime's complete withdrawal from the occupied areas in Lebanon have been emphasized by Iranian officials and negotiators, and there will be no talks until Iran and the resistance's views on this matter are met".• "Also, the Resistance Front and Iran have set their agenda to completely block the Strait of Hormuz, and activate other fronts, including the Bab al-Mandab Strait, in order to punish the Zionists and their supporters".Oil jumps on the headline of halted talks...Futures slide...Author and University of Chicago professor of the 'realist' school Robert Pape says the following on Monday published report: "We will run out of our cushion of oil inventories in July, whether it's the middle or end of July," he said. "And Iran knows that. So what Iran is doing is just stringing out the clock to get a better deal.""What that tells me is they're not interested in returning the price of oil back to where it was before the war," he said. "I think what we need to understand is Iran's goal is to continue instability, continue elevated price of the world's oil because it gains from that."For more, read our:"Approaching Unheard Of Inventory Levels": Exxon, Chevron Issue Apocalyptic Warning About What Happens Next To OilCENTCOM: Intercepted Pair of Ballistic Missiles on BaseOn Monday morning US Central Command issued its official statement and explanation over the earlier tit-for-tat brief flare-up in fighting, which appears to have ended..."Last night at 11 p.m. ET, U.S. forces successfully intercepted two Iranian ballistic missiles targeting American forces based in Kuwait. These missiles were immediately defeated and no American personnel were harmed," it said. "U.S. Central Command remains vigilant and will continue to protect our forces from Iranian aggression while supporting the ongoing ceasefire."Fresh Missiles on KuwaitThe extended US-Iran ceasefire is once again being severely tested, after Iran earlier in the daylight hours of Monday initiated fresh attacks on neighboring Kuwait and even released video showing footage of a ballistic missile launch. Kuwait in turn confirmed that has been intercepting inbound drone and missile fire.It hosts a major American base, which is again being targeted, though it's unclear if anything has been hit. The IRGC subsequently identified that it targeted the US base in response to weekend US strikes on Iranian sites. According to a description of the released propaganda video:The start of the video includes a close-up of what looks to be a sticker on the body of a missile depicting a bruised US president Donald Trump, on the phone asking for help, and overlaid on a “closed” Strait of Hormuz. The caption reads: “Until the last American soldier leaves the region.”
