The race to become Japan’s next prime minister in 2025 – the Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential race – was Koizumi Shinjiro’s to lose. Polls and pre-election gatherings among Diet members indicated that he was the overwhelming favorite to secure the support of Diet members and outperform Takaichi Sanae, who remained popular among the grassroots conservative base of the Liberal Democratic Party.
Before the LDP presidential election, Koizumi’s patron, Suga Yoshihide, had begun reaching out to Nippon Ishin no Kai to coordinate a new coalition that would provide the Koizumi administration with a working majority in both houses of the Diet. There were even reports that members of his campaign team were holding a ”celebratory party” the night before the ultimate result was to be called, treating Koizumi’s victory as an absolute certainty.
However, things did not turn out as expected for Koizumi. He significantly underperformed among rank-and-file members and was defeated by Takaichi, the most popular candidate among the LDP’s core supporters. Takaichi convinced Diet members that she could turn the tide for the party and reclaim its conservative edge – which had seemed to be waning due to a right-wing revolt against a party perceived to be distancing itself from them.
