“Nevertheless, there will always lurk, around a corner in a pocket of our knowledge of the odds, an indefensible hope, and this was one of the times, which you now and then find in sports, when a density of expectation hangs in the air and plucks an event out of the future.”
—“Hub Fans Bid Kid Adieu,” John UpdikeIt’s June 1, which officially means: It’s trade deadline season!The deadline isn’t for two more months, but the season is generally divided into thirds: before Memorial Day, where you’re learning what you have; through the trade deadline, where you’re pondering how to fix it; and the final two months, where you get your final grade. We’re well into the second phase.In good years, this story can already be breaking down the potential finishing pieces for a team with plans for October. That’s typically a fun story. Instead, this year, we’re wondering whether there’s still a chance for the Mets to be buyers, what players they need to learn more about by Aug. 3 and where they should look to infuse talent.What do the Mets have to do to be buyers?Look, I get the basic impulse to want to be first to pronounce it over, to get in on the ground floor of cynicism for a fan base that can tend that way in times like these.And the Mets were indeed close to that threshold this past week. Losing the first two to the Cincinnati Reds at home pushed New York to that familiar 22-33 spot and with injuries and a schedule that made the climb out of it harder to envision. But four wins to finish the week can at least change the order in which I’m outlining these questions.The Mets are 26-33 on the morning of June 1. The trade deadline is unusually late this year: New York will have played 113 games by Aug. 3. That’s more than an extra week of games compared to the average year. (Over the last 10 162-game seasons, the Mets had played an average of 105 games through the day of the trade deadline.) In general, teams make decisions on their deadline direction about a week ahead of the deadline, or July 27 this year. That leaves the Mets with 47 games to shift from sellers to buyers.Going back to 2014, no team that was more than three games below .500 a week ahead of the trade deadline has gone on to make the postseason (again, excepting 2020 here). And the teams that do make the postseason despite lingering around .500 at that time tend to be big-time buyers. Think the 2015 Mets with Yoenis Céspedes or the 2015 Texas Rangers with Cole Hamels or the 2015 Toronto Blue Jays with David Price and Troy Tulowitzki. (2015 was a fun trade deadline.)To get into that window, the Mets need to go at least 26-21 over those next 47 games. That would get them to 52-54 and conceivably in the playoff picture. Anything less than that, and they’re almost certain to be sellers.Now, 26-21 represents a 90-win pace over 162, so while it’s nothing absurd, it would represent a sizable step up for the Mets. They’d have to do that without key pieces for a large chunk of that stretch (or in the case of Clay Holmes, that entire stretch), and they’ll have to do it against an exceedingly difficult schedule.
