UPDATEMarkets pricing in fresh supply fears: Hormuz, uranium, Lebanon risk torching ceasefireLast updated: June 01, 2026 | 14:132 MIN READEnergy markets remained volatile amid continued uncertainty surrounding shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz.ReutersOil prices surged sharply on Monday (June 1, 2026), with benchmarks posting strong gains amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.Today's move highlights the market's sensitivity to any signs of escalation in an already complex region. As traders watch developments in Lebanon, US-Iran talks, renewed skirmishes in the Gulf, and inventory data for the next leg, energy prices have shown wild swings on headlines given the volatile environment. As of 5:01 PM Beijing time (Monday, June 1, 2026 around 1.01pm Gulf time | 9:01 AM UTC | early NY trading), crude oil futures showed:WTI Crude: $90.99 (+$3.63 / +4.16%)Brent Crude: $94.44 (+$3.32 / +3.64%)Murban Crude: $93.06 (+$3.01 / +3.34%)Supporting products also rose: Natural gas +2.37%, gasoline +3.28%, and heating oil +3.92%.Price driversThis marks a notable rebound after oil had pulled back in late May on hopes of progress toward extending a US-Iran ceasefire and gradually reopening the Strait of Hormuz (which handles ~20% of global oil trade). Those hopes have been repeatedly tested by ongoing disruptions from the broader regional conflict that began earlier in 2026.Catalysts for price jumpThe immediate catalyst for Monday’s jump appears to be IRGC attacks on targets in Kuwait, Israel's expansion of military operations in southern Lebanon against Iran-backed Hezbollah, including advances beyond previous lines, capture of strategic sites like Beaufort Castle, and declarations of expanded combat zones. This comes amid a fragile ceasefire, raising fears of wider escalation that could threaten energy infrastructure or complicate broader de-escalation with Iran. Reports of US-Iran strikes added to the risk-off sentiment, as risks remain skewed to the upside from geopolitics.Geopolitical risk premiums have returned quickly after a volatile period where prices spiked significantly earlier (reaching highs well over $120 at peaks amid disruptions and inventory draws) before easing on truce hopes.What analysts sayShort-term bullish on risks: Escalation in Lebanon and any renewed threats to shipping or production could tighten supplies further, especially with inventories already drawn down. If the ceasefire frays, OilPrice warns of potential spikes.Many forecasts, including J.P. Morgan’s, see eventual surpluses and lower averages (~$60–$90 range later in 2026/2027) – assuming recovery in Middle East output and flows. However, analysts have repeatedly hiked 2026 forecasts due to slower-than-expected normalisation. Broader concerns include impacts on global inflation, petrol prices, and economic growth if disruptions persist.93.29+3.24+3.60%Get Updates on Topics You ChooseUp Next