According to the “Financing the Economy 2025” report, private credit managers deployed a record $592.8bn in fresh capital in 2024, up 78% on the previous year. That takes the global market to $3.5-trillion in assets under management. Furthermore, Preqin projects the asset class will grow to $4.5-trillion by 2030. Private credit is therefore no longer a niche alternative. It has become a structural feature of global capital markets. A market that outgrew its origins The asset class rose to prominence after the 2008 global financial crisis, when tighter regulation and higher capital requirements made parts of bank lending less attractive. That created space for nonbank lenders to step in. Direct lending alone is now estimated at $1.5-trillion to $2-trillion, about matching the broadly syndicated loan market. What was once seen as an alternative source of funding has become an established part of the global financing landscape. But that growth has not been uniform. The “Financing the Economy 2025” report indicates Europe now accounts for almost 30% of global private credit assets under management. This speaks not only to the scale of the asset class but also to its growing regional footprint. As the market expands though, it is also becoming more competitive, more nuanced and more dependent on manager quality. Is this still a golden era, or is the market maturing? Private credit’s golden era is not behind it, but it is changing shape. Competition has intensified, spreads have tightened in many areas and abundant capital has altered the dynamics of the market. Yet the structural case remains compelling. Banks have not returned in force to the lending segments they stepped away from, and refinancing demand continues to build. McKinsey’s 2025 report estimates more than $620bn in high-yield bonds and leveraged loans will approach maturity in 2026 and 2027, creating a big opportunity for private credit providers. What is changing is not the relevance of the asset class, but the degree of dispersion between managers. Credit is inherently asymmetric: the upside is limited, so preserving capital and containing losses matter most. That makes underwriting discipline and operational depth increasingly important, with team stability and genuine alignment between general and limited partners. The market is also entering a more demanding phase of the cycle. Intelligence’s 2026 outlook argues that once selective defaults and liability management exercises are considered, stress in private credit is higher than headline default rates suggest. In that environment, manager selection becomes more important. The emerging market reality: opportunity, but not a carbon copy If private credit in developed markets is a story of structural expansion, the emerging market chapter requires a more careful reading. The conditions that powered private credit’s rise in the US and Europe do not exist in the same way across emerging markets. Deep sponsor ecosystems, standardised legal frameworks and postcrisis bank retrenchment cannot be assumed. In much of Africa banks remain the dominant credit providers, but there is a growing set of situations in which their balance sheets, tenor appetite or structuring flexibility are constrained, creating room for specialist private credit strategies. Where there’s an opportunity for private credit in emerging markets One of the clearest areas of financing need is the SME funding gap, but the institutional private credit opportunity in emerging markets is broader, and a compelling prospect sits in the missing middle, where scale, structure and governance can support institutional grade underwriting. Oxford Law notes Africa’s SME financing gap is estimated at $331bn. More broadly, the World Bank indicates SMEs across 119 emerging markets and developing economies face a financing shortfall of $5.7-trillion. This is where private credit’s flexibility may matter most. In markets where traditional finance does not adequately serve smaller and mid-sized businesses, private lenders can structure funding more thoughtfully and selectively. But the opportunity cannot be separated from the risks. Bankability, legal enforceability, security realisation and currency exposure remain critical considerations. They can quickly outweigh the appeal of headline yields if they are not managed carefully. Across emerging markets more broadly the lesson is clear: there is opportunity, but not through a simple copy-and-paste of the developed market playbook. Looking ahead The macroeconomic backdrop remains mixed. Trade tensions, policy uncertainty and geopolitical shocks continue to create risk and opportunity. Dislocation can open doors for disciplined lenders, but it also raises the premium on selectivity and patience. Regulatory developments may also broaden the investor base over time. In the US a presidential executive order issued on August 7 last year directed regulators to revisit how alternative assets may be accessed through 401(k) retirement plans. While the long-term impact remains uncertain, the direction of travel is notable: private credit is becoming more embedded in the mainstream financial system. For institutional investors in markets such as South Africa the implication is not to rush into unfamiliar terrain but to build capability methodically. That means: Developing international credit expertise in a disciplined, incremental way, building conviction through direct experience rather than outsourcing judgment.Learning alongside experienced managers in developed markets, where deal flow and legal infrastructure allow for more controlled exposure.Extending into new geographies only from a position of knowledge and strong partnerships, not momentum alone. Private credit is maturing, but it is far from mature. The forces that created the asset class remain in place, even as the market evolves into something broader, more competitive and more complex. Growth will continue, but it will not belong equally to every manager, every strategy or every region.The next cycle will not be defined by whether private credit grows but by who grows well, where and on what terms.• Amichand is head of international credit and specialised credit strategy at Sanlam Alternative Investments.