$517,192 Vol.Sep 30, 2026PolymarketMay 31$344,356 Vol.<1%June 30$54,997 Vol.4%September 30$68,040 Vol.21%December 31$49,800 Vol.31%$517,192 Vol.PolymarketMay 31$344,356 Vol.<1%June 30$54,997 Vol.4%September 30$68,040 Vol.21%December 31$49,800 Vol.31%This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical tensions stemming from U.S.-Israel military action against Iran in late February 2026 triggered the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, sharply curtailing exports from key producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE through production shut-ins and infrastructure risks. This supply squeeze drove Brent crude to multi-year highs near $138 per barrel in April, with brief spikes above $140 amid stalled diplomatic efforts to reopen shipping lanes and ease sanctions. Prices have since moderated into the $100–120 range as traders weigh potential de-escalation, releases from strategic reserves, and rising non-OPEC output against persistent volatility. Historical precedents show such chokepoint disruptions can sustain elevated levels, though demand weakness and inventory adjustments introduce uncertainty for reaching the 2008 all-time high by year-end.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 2:38 PM ETVolume$517,192End DateDec 31, 2026Market OpenedApr 30, 2026, 2:38 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
