Heatwaves have been happening more often in the UAE since the mid-1990s and the rate of increase is growing, according to scientists who have developed a model to forecast extreme weather events.After analysing more than three decades of the country’s weather data, the researchers have created a forecasting method using AI that is said to be 96 per cent accurate at predicting heatwaves.Better forecasts of extreme weather could help residents to take measures to minimise their exposure to extreme heat, according to Basit Khan, a research scientist at New York University Abu Dhabi who helped develop the model.There had been “a gradual increase” in the frequency of heatwaves in the UAE since the 1990s, but more recently the trend had accelerated, Dr Khan told The National.“After 2010 the frequency has increased at a higher pace,” he said. “Heatwaves are a consequence of human-induced climate change, an indicator [from weather systems] of: ‘This is what you are doing to me.’“Our region is warming at a faster rate than other regions. There are many papers that say this region could be uninhabitable, which is probably a bit exaggerated, but it shows our region is warming at a very fast pace.”Heating upUnderlining the trend, in recent days the UAE has experienced weather that is much hotter than normal for this time of year, with forecasts warning of temperatures as high as 52°C.Details of the research, which also involved scientists at Emirates Aviation University in Dubai and New York University, have been published in Urban Climate.There has been a gradual increase in the frequency of heatwaves in the UAE since the 1990s. Chris Whiteoak / The NationalInfoDr Khan said heatwave frequency, duration and intensity were all increasing, and this should be considered by “people who are at the policymaking level”.The model was developed using UAE weather information from 1990 to 2022, with sources including weather stations, satellites and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which has a global database.Weather data from 2023 and 2024 was used to test the method, which was found to predict heatwaves with 96 per cent accuracy, highlighting the benefits that AI-based modelling can bring.It is a graph neural network model – based on a graph that describes the relationships between 48 weather stations, described as nodes, spread across the UAE.The model is still under development, with the researchers planning to make it even more accurate through continued testing and refinement.Many research groups have developed AI-powered heatwave forecasting and as time has gone on, models have become more accurate.For example, a graph neural network model described in a 2023 study in Geophysical Research Letters was said to be 94 per cent accurate.Reducing risksBeing able to forecast heatwaves with high accuracy two or three days in advance could benefit groups such as the elderly, children, pregnant women and people with illnesses, who are especially at risk from extreme weather, Dr Khan suggested.“They can take measures,” he said. “If they’re planning to go out, they can change their plans or take certain measures when they’re going out – taking proper clothing, water.A Dubai resident takes shade on a hot May day in Business Bay. Chris Whiteoak / The NationalInfo“For companies and executives it is important that if they know a heatwave is predicted, [they understand] what measures they can take to protect the health of their workers.”Niklas Hoehne, of the New Climate Institute in Germany, said it was “very important” to be able to predict accurately when heatwaves were going to happen and how severe they would be.“Currently we’re on a trajectory [in which] the global temperature increase will be twice as much as it has increased [until now]. It will definitely be an issue for countries on the Arabian peninsula,” Dr Hoehne said.He said that governments could take short-term measures in response to forecasts of heatwaves, such as by providing cooled tents.Cooling down The Red Cross is among organisations that have deployed such facilities. In a training manual, the German Red Cross states that “community cooling centres” can be created in response to a heatwave, “but more importantly, they can also be set up in anticipation of upcoming extreme heat events”.“A community cooling centre can accomplish more than just providing relief from heat; it can serve as a gathering place for individuals to come together, learn and collectively address the challenges posed by heat hazards,” the organisation stated.With heatwaves becoming more common, Dr Hoehne said, health risks would increase, especially when high temperatures were combined with humidity, as this made it harder for the body to cool itself.He added that it was important to develop longer-term measures to cope with heatwaves, such as by creating shade and designing buildings that did not heat up quickly. Poorer nations typically find it harder to cope with heatwaves, according to Dr Hoehne.“It’s definitely easier for wealthier nations because the way you cope is to go inside into the air-conditioned room and that’s not available for everyone,” he said.