After the record March reading, private forecasters expect a contraction this month, with falling industrial output, weaker consumption and a slow soybean harvest dragging activity down.
Even as Javier Milei’s government made a big deal of March’s sharp jump in economic activity — an all-time high — most private gauges agree the rebound won’t repeat itself in April.
“Both official data and the readings from private business chambers suggest the March bounce was just a temporary breather in what is still a fragile dynamic,” the consultancy Vectorial said.
In its report, the think tank added that preliminary April data “shows deterioration across several sectors and points to another drop in overall activity, barring a last-minute statistical surprise.”
The private firm Equilibra is forecasting a 1% year-on-year decline and a 1.5% monthly drop. “It’s worth noting that activity has been moving like a sawtooth since February 2025,” the consultancy explained, with monthly contractions in nine of the past 15 months.
