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Elon Musk is being priced as near-certain to become the world's first trillionaire on prediction markets, with traders assigning better than 90% odds that he will cross the milestone before 2027 as SpaceX moves toward a public offering, according to CNBC.
On Kalshi, the odds that Musk reaches trillionaire status before 2027 stand above 90%, with traders placing roughly 93% odds on him reaching the benchmark before 2028, according to CNBC. On Polymarket, a separate prediction platform, traders have placed 92.5% market-implied odds on the outcome, citing the combined SpaceX and xAI valuation of $1.25 trillion following the companies' February merger and preparations for a mid-2026 IPO.
The math underpinning the consensus is straightforward. According to a prospectus released with the filing, Musk holds approximately 5.1 billion SpaceX shares alongside options on roughly 350 million additional shares, exercisable at $8.39 apiece, according to Bloomberg. A $2 trillion IPO valuation would push his total fortune to around $1.1 trillion once his approximately $292 billion Tesla $TSLA -1.27% position is factored in, Bloomberg reported. Even at a $1.75 trillion valuation, he would clear the trillion-dollar threshold.
