The MNI Chicago Business Barometer hit 62.7 in May, blowing past the consensus estimate of 50.3 by a margin that makes most economic forecasts look like darts thrown blindfolded. For context, a reading above 50 signals expansion. A reading above 60 signals something closer to a manufacturing boom.
Just one month ago, the index sat at 49.2, technically in contraction territory. In English: the Chicago-area economy went from shrinking to sprinting in roughly 30 days.
What the numbers actually mean
The Chicago PMI, produced by MNI Indicators in partnership with ISM-Chicago, surveys purchasing professionals across the Chicago region. Think of it as a monthly health checkup for manufacturing and business activity in one of America’s most economically significant metro areas.
Released on May 29 at 9:45 a.m. ET, the number landed like a cold splash of water on anyone positioned for continued softness. The consensus estimate hovered between 50.3 and 50.6, essentially expecting the economy to flatline at the expansion-contraction boundary. Instead, it vaulted more than 12 points above expectations.
