PARIS — With a forehand from Juan Manuel Cerúndolo that curved across the Court Philippe-Chatrier clay, the 2026 French Open men’s draw became a sea of opportunity.Cerúndolo, the world No. 56, knocked out Jannik Sinner, the overwhelming favorite and world No. 1, on Thursday afternoon at Roland Garros. Sinner led 6-3, 6-2, 5-2 as he served four points from victory, but a combination of illness and heat sapped him of his energy. Cerúndolo went on to win in five sets, 3-6, 2-6, 7-5, 6-1, 6-1, ending Sinner’s hopes of completing the career Grand Slam by winning his first French Open title.With that, the two biggest stars of men’s tennis were out of the running. Carlos Alcaraz never even made it to Paris: The two-time defending champion withdrew with a wrist injury, which is set to keep him out until at least Wimbledon.With the third round yet to even start, who has the best shot to win this thing? The Athletic’s tennis writers make their case.Alexander ZverevIt’s well documented that near-misses can lead to a buildup of psychological scar tissue. And with three Grand Slam final defeats, there’s no doubting that Alexander Zverev has had plenty of those.What the near-misses also illustrate is a player mostly doing the right things. If they keep doing them, they might just get over the line eventually, if luck goes their way.That’s what I expect to happen with Zverev at this year’s French Open. All three of his final defeats have been to better players: Dominic Thiem at the 2020 U.S. Open, Carlos Alcaraz at the 2024 French Open and Jannik Sinner at the 2025 Australian Open. Even though he was close against the former two, they were still matches he was expected to lose.Now, should he get to the final, Zverev will be the favorite. While that brings pressure, the finals tend to be won by the higher-ranked, more experienced player.A potential semifinal against Novak Djokovic could be hard, but Zverev is an excellent clay-court player, and it feels as though his time is about to arrive.— Charlie EccleshareAlexander Zverev has been to three Grand Slam finals but has never won one. (Alberto Pizzoli / AFP via Getty Images)If Casper Ruud beats Tommy Paul in their third-round match Friday, Zverev will be on his way to his first Grand Slam title.After (hypothetically) beating Paul, Ruud would then have a fourth-round matchup with Djokovic. If Ruud doesn’t end up beating Djokovic — there’s an outside chance there, for a man who’s played two French Open finals — he’ll siphon enough gas from his tank to leave Djokovic physically weakened enough to fade against Zverev in the semifinals.The 29-year-old German is still one of the five best active clay-court players in the world, who will no doubt want to avenge his lackluster showing against Djokovic in the quarterfinals last year. If Djokovic is already beaten up, and if Zverev’s tetchy back stays in good shape, he’ll have a chance.