Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio, the daughter of former leader Rodrigo Duterte, has long looked like the politician to beat in the Philippines’ 2028 presidential race, with one of the country’s most powerful political brands behind her, a loyal base in Mindanao and early polls showing her ahead of potential rivals.But two prominent pollsters say her lead is not impregnable.According to Dr Ranjit Rye, founding president of OCTA Research, and Ronnie Holmes, president of Pulse Asia Research Inc, Duterte-Carpio’s vulnerability lies in Metro Manila and the provinces outside the capital commonly grouped by pollsters as “Balance Luzon”.Together, the two regions account for half of the nation’s more than 68 million registered voters, they say.Both political scientists told This Week in Asia that the two regions shared two important characteristics: a large number of undecided voters and signs that Duterte-Carpio’s ratings were declining there.Rye said a non-commissioned survey conducted in March indicated that, in a head-to-head fight between Duterte-Carpio and former vice-president Leni Robredo – the liberal opposition figure who lost to Ferdinand Marcos Jnr in the 2022 presidential election – Duterte-Carpio would handily beat Robredo by 46 per cent to 35 per cent.An infographic showing the results of a survey matching Vice-President Sara Duterte against Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo in a hypothetical 2028 presidential match-up. Photo: Octa Research
Is Sara Duterte’s lead for Philippines’ 2028 presidential race in danger?
Two pollsters say the vice-president is vulnerable in the key regions of Metro Manila and the group of provinces known as ‘Balance Luzon’.
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