With the luck of one ping-pong ball last May, the New York Islanders’ trajectory changed.Matthew Schaefer didn’t change the long-term outlook on Long Island; he transformed the team in Year 1. His game-breaking play as a rookie, plus Ilya Sorokin’s brilliance in net, was almost enough to reach the playoffs — until it wasn’t.The Islanders’ late-season collapse led to a surprising coaching change with just four games left. Hiring Pete DeBoer was a step in the right direction, but there’s still more work to do to bring the team back to contention.Here’s where the Islanders stand going into the 2026-27 season using the Stanley Cup Checklist. All projected values are age-adjusted based on each player’s profile of comparable peers.What the Islanders have It’s easy to look at this year’s final four playoff teams and think goaltending doesn’t matter that much. But the 2025-26 Islanders, who seriously struggled to defend the rush, wouldn’t have been anywhere near the playoff picture if it weren’t for Sorokin. His 27.5 goals saved above expected, which ranked second in the regular season, were a reminder that this is a true franchise goaltender who can carry his team to defy the odds. He just needs a little more support to do it across a full season.Schaefer is the first wave of that, after an incredible rookie season. A player is drafted No. 1 because 1) they have an elite ceiling and 2) are thought to hit impact status sooner rather than later. But even with that in mind, what Schaefer did as an 18-year-old defenseman was unprecedented. Not only did he prove that he belonged at this level immediately, Schaefer grew and adapted to an increasingly difficult workload on the fly. With a projected plus-14.4 Net Rating next year, this is an elite cornerstone with an incredibly bright future.Behind Schaefer, Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock’s shutdown strengths add more layers of support on the back end.What the Islanders need Schaefer’s immediate emergence helps slot players such as Pelech and Pulock into more fitting top-four roles. A healthy Alexander Romanov, plus direction from a more defensively minded coach such as DeBoer, could help shore up play in the Islanders’ zone, too. But there’s still a gap in between that has to be filled with a scoring defenseman. The only internal option for that may be Kashawn Aitcheson. He’s No. 36 on colleague Corey Pronman’s list of top under-23 players, and could help build an encouraging foundation with Schaefer on the back end.Up front, there’s a lot more work to do.Technically, Mathew Barzal checks the boxes for a shutdown forward even though he doesn’t fit the mold for that role. The good news is it means the team has at least one elite core forward in place for the 2026-27 season. The bad news is that it’s Barzal in this capacity, when his raw skill set and offensive talents should fit higher.