A big contributor to the soaring spirits surrounding the pending SpaceX IPO is near-certainty that the offering will raise $80 billion or more in fresh capital. But the S-1 the Space, Connectivity and AI enterprise released the evening of May 20th contains a surprising revelation. SpaceX has already pledged the largest part by far of what’s expected to be the largest sum ever raised in an IPO to third parties. That arrangement could prove a major negative for the folks and funds clamoring to get shares. The reason: CEO Elon Musk is essentially betting the future on gigantic growth in the new AI franchise. Of the total addressable market of $28.5 trillion he forsees for the company in the S-1, $26.5 trillion of that is in AI. That’s 13x his estimated TAM for what were until recently its two core businesses, mobile and broadband service provided by its constellation of satellites, and making and selling rockets, as well as providing flights for NASA and other customers.
SpaceX entered AI in a big way when it combined with Musk-controlled xAI in February. Overnight, it basically reinvented itself as a hyperscaler focused on rapidly building compute capacity. Indeed, the shift opened a gigantic new market to SpaceX. But it also came at a heavy price: The requirement for capital expenditures to build out such mega-projects as its Colossus I and II data center in Memphis covering two million square feet. In the past five quarters, the AI side has devoured over $20 billion in cash to fund its buildout, two-thirds the total for all of SpaceX. In Q1 alone, the number doubled from a year ago to $7.7 billion. The S-1 states that the AI investment budget will ramp rapidly from there.
