While economists and analysts provide insight, sometimes it’s the people closer to the ground who are a bellwether for the wider economy. As such, David Dowling, commercial director of Cronin Group, a provider of logistics and workplace relocation, has a bird’s-eye view of employment trends – his company’s daily activity reflecting everything from foreign direct investment to labour mobility. In other words, he knows who’s moving offices in, and out of, the country. What he sees is growing demand for tech skills, particularly those related to artificial intelligence. “People are only getting to grips with it,” says Dowling. While some sectors, including IT, have seen well publicised lay-offs, first as part of post Covid “right sizing”, and subsequently while they too get to grips with the impact of AI, other sectors have continued hiring apace, particularly from overseas.That includes medical staff for hospitals and nursing homes. “These are roles that AI can’t replace, where you need human interaction,” says Dowling. The construction industry is also bringing in staff from overseas, something the Government’s recent Accelerating Infrastructure report, which aims to speed up delivery of electricity, transport and water infrastructure, will likely fuel. Together with the State’s retrofit targets, and now the freeing up of regulations in relation to modular homes, skilled building workers will be in even more demand, he predicts. David Dowling, commercial director, Cronin Group On the other hand, Dowling has also seen more worrying straws in the wind in relation to some of Ireland’s largest building firms. Some have seen big projects put on hold, typically where a US HQ has pressed pause on expansion here while it navigates a changed geopolitical environment. “Some of those projects have, we’ve been told, gone to America. It’s quietly happening,” says Dowling. Dowling’s anecdotal observations align closely with research data, particularly in ICT, a sector whose fortunes carry outsized implications for Ireland’s economy.Reliance on ICTAccording to a new report from Eurofound, the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions, ICT’s importance to Ireland relative to the EU27 average is pronounced, with one in 10 of workers in Dublin alone employed in the sector.Anything that impacts the ICT sector in particular will have alarm bells ringing in Leinster House. A new report due from Eurofound this summer, IT Sector in Focus: Evolution of the EU’s Digital Workforce, looks at such topics as artificial intelligence, cybersecurity and the EU27’s need for digital independence, and assesses them in relation to the bloc’s stated objective of having 20 million ICT specialists in employment by 2030.While IT employment is growing faster than employment overall, labour shortages abound, especially in more specialised roles, the report finds. That’s because basic digital skills are fast becoming a transversal requirement in most occupations and sectors, it points out, and a precondition of being able to work in all of the faster-growing knowledge-intensive sectors. “At the vanguard of our digital transformation are those with advanced IT skills and qualifications. These are the individuals who develop the software, manage network security, research and develop new solutions in artificial intelligence, quantum computing and other emerging technologies,” it states.While EU members are growing their ranks of such specialists, they aren’t doing it fast enough.“One consequence is that the contribution of IT activities to economic growth in the EU27 has been underwhelming relative to that in other advanced economies,” the report states, echoing the Draghi report of two years ago, which raised concerns about EU competitiveness. It’s why huge investment is now being committed to the EU’s digital transformation, with generous EU and national subsidies available via numerous schemes and initiatives, especially in high-skill areas. Major initiatives at EU level include the network of European Digital Innovation Hubs, the Cybersecurity Skills Academy and the development of the EU’s AI gigafactories, large facilities designed to provide much-needed computing power. The EU’s Digital Decade 2030 programme set out the policy framework for these investments in 2023, focusing on skills, infrastructure, business and public services.In relation to the labour market, it set the objective of having 20 million ICT specialists in employment in the EU by 2030. At current growth rates this ambitious target is unlikely to be met, Eurofound reports, making the mobilisation of “extra sources of supply of digital talent” now all the more urgent.Unfortunately, the pipeline of these skills is constrained by the years of academic training for higher-level qualifications required and, increasingly, not enough of our young people are electing to study Stem subjects. “By most assessments, the growth in demand for the IT workforce, combined with rapid technological change, has outpaced the ability of our education systems to produce sufficient numbers with the required skills,” Eurofound warns. Among firms with open IT vacancies across the EU in 2024, 57 per cent reported difficulties filling positions. Labour shortages were especially acute for senior roles and for highly specialised functions in cybersecurity, AI and generative AI, as well as cloud computing.Employer demand for ICT specialists is increasingly being satisfied via labour migration from non-EU countries, which has been a much more important contributor to recent employment growth than intra-EU labour mobility.John Hurley, senior research manager, Eurofound Welcoming women Despite the demand for ICT skills, and the typically good-quality pay and conditions ICT careers provide, one important issue Eurofound’s report flags up is the underrepresentation of women in Europe’s digital workforce. “Fewer than one in five EU ICT specialists is a woman, despite women accounting for a much higher share of students in IT-relevant subjects,” says one of the report’s co-authors, John Hurley. “Encouraging women to enter Stem subjects and careers has been a standard component of training and education policy addressing labour shortages in the IT sector. Based on the European Working Conditions survey we show that female ICT specialists have a significantly less positive work experience across many job-quality domains compared to their male counterparts,” he adds. “As we say in the executive summary, female IT specialists are much less likely to consider themselves fairly paid for their work effort, have less access to paid training, are exposed to higher levels of work intensity and adverse social behaviours while having less influence over how their work is organised. Outcomes like these may be discouraging women from entering the field.”Closing the gender IT employment gap is not just a matter of equity but of economic necessity, he and his co-authors point out. “In a context of labour shortages, failing to attract women means the EU is operating with less than three quarters of its potential ICT specialist talent pool,” they point out. “It is also limiting the diversity of perspectives in shaping technologies that increasingly influence all aspects of society, in work and outside work.”The pain points identified by Eurofound – skills shortages, dependence on migration and the failure to fully tap the female talent pool – are not just abstract policy concerns. As evidenced by David Dowling’s on-the-ground observations, issues are already visible in patterns of relocation, recruitment and postponed investment. The volume and direction of people moving for work remains an early indicator of where Ireland’s economy is gaining – and where it risks falling behind.