Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-TX) performance in the Texas Senate GOP primary election on Tuesday indicated polling for one of the country’s most closely watched races failed to sufficiently capture the political dynamic.Cornyn lost the runoff primary election by a more-than 27-point margin, as he trails Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton 36.2% to 63.8%, according to the Associated Press.Though polls leading up to the election showed Cornyn trailing, most failed to accurately predict the sweeping scale of the incumbent’s loss.
An average of three polls compiled by 270 To Win predicted that Cornyn would lose the nomination by roughly an 8-point margin.
Of the six polls released in May compiled by the New York Times, only one handed Cornyn a double-digit loss. The last poll conducted before the election, a Quantus Insights survey, predicted Paxton would win, but by just over 9 points.
Several factors could have led to Paxton’s higher-than-expected performance, including a last-minute endorsement from President Donald Trump and low voter turnout for Cornyn.
“President Trump is the leader of our party, and his endorsement is the most powerful force in politics,” Paxton said at his victory party. “When everyone in Washington told him to abandon me and abandon the people of Texas, he didn’t listen.”
