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Plans for a fast-tracked mine expansion in Waikato have paused, because the mine's owners do not know if they can sell the coal.
Bathurst Resources said the entire Rotowaro mine - which employs about 200 people - could close after 2030 "if no further certainty is gained".
The mine's main customer NZ Steel is set to drastically cut coal usage at its Glenbrook Steel Mill when a new electric arc furnace replaces two of its four coal-fired kilns later this year.
An anti-mining group said the lack of buyers shows that New Zealand can successfully move away from fossil fuels if industries get help to switch to alternatives.
