Experts see the robust production in 2025-26 to help the country navigate any drop in current year amid projection of below-normal monsoon
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India’s foodgrain production in the 2025-26 crop year (CY) ending June is estimated to have increased by over 5 per cent, with rice production touching a new high. Rice production is expected to be over 154 million tonnes (mt), making India the top global producer. The government released the production estimates – third advance estimate of crops grown all three seasons – kharif, rabi and summer (zaid) – for 2025-26 CY in which wheat production was raised marginally, while cotton output was lowered. Experts see the robust production in 2025-26 to help the country navigate any drop in current year amid projection of below-normal monsoon, which has missed the onset forecast date of May 26, and the emergence of drought-bearing El Nino.Wheat production, which was pegged at 120.21 mt in the previous estimate, is now projected at 120.66 mt, notwithstanding localised damage caused due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms. According to the government’s third advance estimates, the current projection of wheat production is higher by 2.3 per cent from 117.94 mt in 2024-25. It is a record high.‘Record-breaking’ outputHowever, in case of cotton, the Agriculture Ministry has estimated its production in 2025-26 at 29.02 million bales ( of 170 kg), down by 2.4 per cent from 29.72 million bales in 2024-25. In the previous estimate, the government had projected cotton output at 29.09 million bales for 2025-26.Releasing the estimates, Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said in a statement: “Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the government is continuously working towards the prosperity of farmers and the development of the agricultural sector. These efforts are now manifesting in the form of record-breaking production.”The government is working relentlessly to strengthen agriculture and enhance the well-being of farmers. This sustained effort is the very reason behind the continuous improvement being witnessed in agricultural production, he said.The third advance estimates indicate that the production status of foodgrains, major cereals, oilseeds, and commercial crops in the country remains robust, with record-level estimates projected for several crops. He said that the agricultural research conducted by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) and its associated institutes has also played a pivotal role in the higher production of these major crops.Nutri-cereals down“These efforts (of ICAR) encompass the development of climate-resilient crop varieties, rain-fed production technologies, and the dissemination of research findings to the field level. Under the ‘Viksit Krishi Sankalp Abhiyan’ (Developed Agriculture Pledge Campaign) launched last year, the agricultural sector across the country was further strengthened,” he said.As per the latest release, rice production is pegged at 154.02 mt, up by 2.6 per cent from 150.18 mt in 2024-2. In the foodgrains category, though there is a drop in production of nutri cereals (Shree Anna), but the output of pulses and maize is higher.Pulses production is seen at 27.41 mt, up by 6.7 per cent from 25.68 mt. Tur (pigeon peas) production is estimated at 3.59 mt (against 3.62 mt), gram (chana) is pegged at 12.51 mt (11.11 mt) and lentil (masur) at 1.76 mt (1.65 mt). Maize production for the first time crossed 50 mt mark and the government has pegged it at 55.09 mt, up 27 per cent from 43.41 mt.But, nutri cereals (millets, jowar, ragi) production has dipped 5.4 per cent to 17.58 mt from 18.59 mt.Oilseeds production has been pegged a tad higher at 43.06 mt from 42.99 mt as soyabean output dipped to 12.6 mt from 15.27 mt. On the other hand, mustard production is seen to be at record 13.77 mt from 12.67 mt.Published on May 27, 2026
