In baseball, the great game of statistics, one set of numbers has grown more important than the rest.These figures are not the proprietary work of a data scientist toiling away late into the night. They don’t even measure on-field performance; not directly, anyway.Yet franchise values — as measured in billions of dollars — might soon determine whether Major League Baseball has a season in 2027.Over today and tomorrow, players and owners are expected to make their opening economic proposals in negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement. The owners are going to push for a salary cap and floor, a system players don’t want, and the ensuing labor fight could eventually lead to canceled games.Why, at a time when MLB has otherwise built positive momentum, would the league pursue such an acrimonious change, and risk alienating fans with a work stoppage? Many issues are at play, but none supersede the long game owners are playing. Their mission is to maximize the worth of their teams.Baseball has always been a business, yes — but not like this. Private equity has flowed into the sport for the better part of a decade, and someday, those investors will want a return. And even though every team continues to grow in value, many owners believe that their clubs should command still-higher prices.The average baseball team is worth $2.9 billion, more than double MLB’s $1.3 billion average from a decade ago, per Forbes’ annual estimates. But some franchises are appreciating at a much slower rate than others. When they put their teams up for sale in recent years, the owners of the Los Angeles Angels, Washington Nationals and Minnesota Twins were disappointed by the bids that came in.What’s perhaps most irksome to baseball owners, however, is that they keep getting trounced by owners in other leagues. The average National Basketball Association team is worth $5.4 billion, and the average National Football League team $7.1 billion, per Forbes.Two of 30 baseball teams appear to have doubled in value since 2021. Meanwhile, across the NBA and NFL combined, 61 of 62 teams have doubled, per Forbes.“You’ve seen this widening of the gap,” said Steve Greenberg, a veteran sports banker at Allen & Company who’s advised many baseball teams in their sale processes. “Baseball’s been stagnant for about five years.”The San Diego Padres are about to change hands in a deal that values the team at $3.9 billion overall, a record price for an MLB club by about $1.5 billion. To some, that increase might seem like significant growth. But for competitive billionaires, “good enough” isn’t always part of the lexicon.Conversations about franchise value often center on revenue multiples, a way of measuring a business’ worth. A company that can be sold for 12 times its annual gross revenue — which is what Greenberg estimates teams in the NBA and NFL sell for today — is typically doing better than one that sells for six or seven times its revenue, like MLB teams.“The values of MLB teams on a multiple basis have lagged, and lagged by 50 percent if you compare it to NBA, NFL,” said Greenberg, the son of Hall-of-Fame slugger Hank Greenberg.The owners are emboldened not only because they see a problem — they also believe they see a solution.Every day, they watch other leagues make use of the system they want in baseball. The NBA, NFL and National Hockey League all have a salary cap and floor. MLB does not.The leading reason MLB valuations trail is a lack of “payroll certainty,” according to Sal Galatioto, president of the sports banking firm Galatioto Sports Partners.“In the NFL, for instance, you have a hard cap. In the NHL, you have a hard cap. You don't have that in baseball,” said Galatioto. “You have a small number of teams that spend significantly more than the majority of teams.”The CBA negotiation is an “800-pound gorilla” that’s “going to have a huge impact on the value of these things,” he continued.Even if owners eventually abandon a cap proposal, franchise values would be a large part of their calculus. A lengthy lockout could damage team prices by pushing fans away, at least for a time. But it’s too early in the negotiations to know how owners will treat that cost-benefit analysis.“Everybody I talk to agrees that the current economic system doesn't work,” Galatioto added.The players’ union disagrees, however, and argues that the owners can grow their franchise values without a salary cap.Under late owner Peter Seidler, the Padres spent heavily on payroll and posted great attendance figures — even though they play in one of the smallest media markets on baseball’s circuit.“Despite a steady drumbeat of management complaints about lagging franchise values and small markets’ supposed inability to compete, the reported Padres’ sale is yet another example that our game has never been stronger — that owners willing to invest in gifted players while also developing home-grown talent will be rewarded at the turnstiles, in the standings, and in the market,” Bruce Meyer, the interim head of the Players Association, said in a statement. "The Padres’ commitment to winning has now resulted in a reported record sale price of nearly $4 billion, boosting the value of every team in every market.“The lesson could not be clearer: when clubs prioritize winning, fans, players, and owners are all better off.”As an expected lockout in December approaches, few questions will be more relevant than these: what is the state of baseball franchise values today? How has private equity’s entry into ownership groups affected those values, and how will franchise values affect the potential work stoppage?MLB declined comment for this story.What's the state of franchise values?Prices keep going up, and not only for gasoline.From 2021 to 2026, the total worth of MLB’s 30 teams has increased roughly 50 percent, to about $87 billion, per Forbes’ estimates. Baseball teams have cumulatively gained about $30 billion in that period.What’s debated is whether they’re rising enough, and whether enough teams share in those gains.NBA teams? They’re up $97 billion in the last six years of valuations Forbes has released, beginning with the 2020-21 season, up through their estimates for the 2025-26 campaign. The NFL, which has two more teams than baseball and basketball, has added about $130 billion in that same stretch.Opinions about baseball’s status quo fall along party lines. Management types who think MLB will benefit from a salary cap often suggest that the sport has a problem.“I'll tell you exactly what we've been telling clients: baseball, writ large, is undervalued,” Greenberg said. “The teams are undervalued relative to the rest of the sports ecosystem.”Meanwhile, player advocates opposed to a cap suggest the industry is doing well enough, if not thriving.“The players have consistently maintained that it is not their responsibility to help billionaires with their budgets, but the players have long been committed to creatively resolving the issues,” player agent Seth Levinson said.Another player agent, Scott Boras, used that same word Greenberg did: “undervalued.”The sides generally agree on one factor holding down franchise prices: the sport’s national TV deals, which are worth somewhere north of $2 billion annually. The current agreements expire after the 2028 season, and Boras believes MLB has an “explosive media rights valuation on the way.”