This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent NASA announcements have driven the near-certain trader consensus against a human moon landing in 2026. In February 2026, the agency restructured its Artemis program, confirming that Artemis III will now serve as a low-Earth orbit technology demonstration in 2027 rather than attempting a crewed lunar landing. Persistent delays in developing the Human Landing System variants from SpaceX and Blue Origin, combined with Space Launch System rocket challenges, shifted the first landing target to Artemis IV in early 2028. While technical issues or regulatory hurdles could still alter schedules, the compressed timeline leaves virtually no realistic path for a 2026 return.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Market Opened: Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
