See more Daily Mail on Google - save us as a Preferred SourceBy GREG HEFFER, POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT Published: 10:21 BST, 26 May 2026 | Updated: 13:18 BST, 26 May 2026
Andy Burnham could be handed victory in the 'knife-edge' Makerfield by-election by Nigel Farage's rival running against Reform UK, according to Britain's leading pollster.The Greater Manchester mayor is Labour's candidate in the June 18 contest and is hoping to secure a return to Westminster with a view to challenging Sir Keir Starmer.The first poll of the by-election campaign has suggested Mr Burnham has a slim lead over Reform candidate Robert Kenyon.And Reform figures fear their chances of success are being hampered by Restore Britain, an outfit led by Great Yarmouth MP Rupert Lowe, also standing a candidate.Professor Sir John Curtice said Restore fighting the by-election was 'good news' for Mr Burnham as it threatened to split the Right-wing vote in the constituency.The top pollster added that Mr Lowe's party was 'making life much more difficult for Reform' in the 'knife-edge' by-election.It came as the Green Party announced a new candidate for the Makerfield contest after their previous choice withdrew from the contest.Sarah Wakefield, a Manchester city councillor, said her message was 'the future can be better and fairer than the failed status quo' as she was unveiled as the Green hopeful. Andy Burnham could be handed victory in the 'knife-edge' Makerfield by-election by Nigel Farage's rival running against Reform UK, according to Britain's leading pollster Reform figures fear their chances of success are being hampered by Restore Britain, an outfit led by Great Yarmouth MP Rupert Lowe, also standing a candidateThe previous Green candidate, Chris Kennedy, pulled out after just nine hours citing 'personal and family reasons'.He apologised after it was reported that he had shared a social media post calling an attack on Jewish ambulances in north London a 'false flag'.The first poll of the by-election campaign suggested Mr Burnham (on 43 per cent support) has a three-point lead over Reform's Mr Kenyon (40 per cent).Restore were third in the Survation survey on 7 per cent support.Speaking to The Telegraph about the Makerfield by-election, Sir John said: 'The place is on an absolute knife-edge, so far as what is sometimes thought as being the Right-wing bloc and the Left-wing bloc.'Reform has managed, evidently, from looking at the transfer numbers, to squeeze the Tory vote. But Restore Britain is intervening and making life much more difficult for Reform.'On the one hand, so far as Burnham is concerned, the intervention of Restore Britain is definitely good news.'On the other hand, it also shows that if Reform are able to squeeze this Restore vote – because they've lost one in eight of their 2024 voters to Restore – then, even if this poll is accurate, Reform could still overtake Burnham.'
