Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s May 21 announcement that the province will hold a referendum on October 19, 2026, asking voters whether the government should begin the constitutional process for a future binding vote on separation has driven the current trader consensus. This non-binding vote directly addresses the market’s criteria for scheduling a referendum before 2027 and follows months of citizen petitions, signature thresholds met by separatist groups, and legislative adjustments enabling such initiatives. Parallel developments in Quebec, where the Parti Québécois has pledged a secession referendum in its first mandate if it wins the October 2026 provincial election, add further context. These steps reflect ongoing provincial-federal tensions and procedural pathways under Canadian constitutional rules, shaping implied probabilities around the likelihood and timing of formal ballot measures.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."