Indian financial markets are navigating a complex mix of strong corporate earnings and rising macroeconomic uncertainty, with private sector banks increasingly looking better placed than PSU banks in the current cycle, according to market expert Digant Haria from GreenEdge Wealth in a conversation with ET Now.“Numbers were strong, but macros are now the key concern”Responding to whether private banks should be preferred over PSU banks after a strong Q4 earnings season, Haria noted that the sector’s fundamentals remain solid, but macro headwinds are beginning to dominate the near-term outlook.“See, the numbers were strong for almost the entire sector. Nothing in the sector has practically disappointed. And see, the genesis of the numbers that we saw in the last quarter was the RBI rate cuts and the easing cycle which started in February of 2025. So it typically takes around 11–12 months for the strength to build up in the sector, like the regulator does something, the macros do something and it passes on to the sector,” he said.However, he cautioned that external pressures could delay further upside.“But now if you see that from March because of this Iran war, there is an inflation wave, there is a wave of currency depreciation, there is a chance that interest rates after hardening a little bit can harden a little more. So while the micros are very good, a lot of companies reported great results, but the macros are something that maybe another three to six months,” he added.He further emphasized that meaningful upside may remain capped in the near term.“We will not see a very big rally or a party in this sector unless this war comes to an end or oil comes to something like $90 or our currency stabilises. If either of these three things happen, there is a lot of value in the financial sector,” Haria said.Private banks preferred over PSU peersOn the relative positioning of private and public sector banks, Haria remained clearly constructive on private lenders.“And to your question, private banks look better than PSU banks. I think absolutely yes. At this stage, private banks offer a lot of value in names like ICICI, Kotak, Axis. Everybody, I would say the spring is compressed. They delivered good results, good performance, they will probably do it in the future, but yes, we need a little bit of macro improvement before this entire thing starts,” he said.He added that while short-term returns may remain muted, long-term investors should consider accumulation.“So long-term investors, definitely it is a good time to accumulate, but three–six months nobody knows, you may end up with flat returns probably in three–six months,” he noted.PSU banks: No major headwinds, but valuation reset underwayAddressing concerns around PSU banks, Haria rejected the idea of structural stress, attributing recent volatility to macro shocks and overheating in the previous rally.“No, I do not think there are any specific headwinds because see this whole PSU banks, they rallied very, very sharply till February. It was only this Iran war and the related macro deterioration which resulted in a sharp correction,” he said.He explained that bond yield movements impacted treasury portfolios, but the correction was largely technical.“When bond yields go up, the treasury portfolios of PSU banks may register a little bit of losses, but these are short-term things. It is just that the sector was too heated,” he said.NBFCs: Microfinance and gold loans shineOn non-banking financial companies, Haria highlighted two standout segments.“One pocket is the microfinance or the micro lending space. That has resolutely turned around. If you look at the March quarter, almost all the microfinance companies reported very strong numbers,” he said.He added that the cycle appears to be entering a recovery phase. “We think it is just the start of this good cycle in microfinance after 25 months of a very bad cycle,” he noted.The second area of strength, according to him, is gold loans. “Companies delivered fantastic results, fantastic growth. The outlook also remains very strong,” Haria said.Metals: Long-term structural strength intactDiscussing commodities, Haria maintained a constructive long-term view despite near-term overheating.“In metals there are different segments like aluminium. India is blessed with bauxite and electricity, so aluminium remains very good,” he said.However, he cautioned that the recent rally may cool.“Near term we have had a very good rally, probably we have had enough. But in the long term, the entire metal pack looks very solid,” he added.He also flagged mining names as preferred plays.“We are more bullish on mining names like NMDC or MOIL, anybody who has the mines for the long term,” he said.Autos: Near-term pressure, long-term premiumisation intactOn the auto sector, particularly two-wheelers, Haria flagged short-term challenges from macro and fuel price pressures.“The domestic consumption of two-wheelers this year can be a little challenging versus what last year was,” he said. However, he remained positive on export-led and premiumisation-driven companies.“Bajaj has a lot of exports. Eicher is exports plus premiumisation play… TVS is also a good premiumisation story,” he noted.Markets: Consolidation now, potential highs laterOn the broader Indian equity market, Haria struck a balanced tone, suggesting consolidation in the near term but optimism over the medium term.“India is doing okay. Whenever oil prices move the way they have moved and currency moves, India has to consolidate for a few months,” he said.He added that selective accumulation opportunities are emerging.“It is a fantastic time to go shopping. Large banks, autos, real estate, travel and tourism have been hammered because of war and crude oil concerns, but there are fantastic companies there,” he said.Looking ahead, he remained optimistic.“Once currency stabilises and FIIs come back, we can actually think of new highs by Diwali,” Haria said, adding that oil stability and geopolitical easing remain key triggers for sustained market momentum.