As the monthly expiry approaches in a holiday-shortened week, Geojit Investments’ Anand James signals a potential Nifty range breakout above 23,700. In this exclusive interview, he analyses early bottoming signs in the Nifty IT index, emerging profit-booking trends in high-flying Pharma stocks, and shares his top short-term technical stock picks, including Surya Roshni and Cholamandalam Investment.Edited excerpts from a chat:After Nifty ended last week with a small gain, how would you trade the index in the monthly expiry in a holiday-shortened week? Our inference from the analysis of the last four months’ straddles is that after strong volatility expansion in March–April 2026, May has been calmer, with a relatively lower but elevated straddle level. This indicates that while volatility has cooled, it hasn’t fully collapsed, and premiums are holding a firm base. Compared to prior months, the current setup reflects a coiling market condition, where the range has tightened, and the potential for expansion is building rather than continuing further compression.Meanwhile, successive days of close not far from 23,700 in the last seven days suggest that the odds of a range breakout are high. What tilts the bias in favour of upsides is the fact that Nifty has just had two consecutive days of close above the 10-day SMA for the first time since 8th May. This encourages us to step into the new week with positivity despite seeing rejection trades through last week on every attempt to push higher. Prospects of moving into the 23,900-24,450 band depend on the ability not to slip past 23,600. Slippage past the same is less likely to trigger a vertical collapse, but major support is seen far, at 22,800.Do you think that the Nifty IT index is showing signs of bottoming out after hitting a low on 14th May?Nifty IT is showing early signs of bottoming out after the low formed on 14th May, but confirmation of a sustained reversal is still pending. The index has managed to hold the crucial horizontal support zone of 28,900-28,700, which indicates the presence of buying interest at lower levels and prevents further downside acceleration. This stability in support is a key prerequisite for any bottom formation.From a momentum perspective, the weekly RSI moving up from the oversold region suggests that bearish momentum is weakening and a potential base is forming. Additionally, the index is attempting to move above the daily Supertrend, which reinforces the possibility of a short-term pullback.Derivative data also supports the view of a near-term recovery. Earlier positioning reflected a bearish undertone, with short build-up and low PCR indicating caution. However, the latest data shows that nearly 90% of stock futures have witnessed short covering on a week-on-week basis, suggesting that bearish positions are being unwound and providing room for a relief rally.That said, the sustainability of this upmove remains uncertain. The zone of 30,900-31,000 is expected to act as a strong resistance, and the absence of significant fresh long build-up indicates that conviction in the uptrend is still limited.Gland Pharma jumped 10% in the week. Will the momentum sustain?While some oscillators continue to show a trending nature, others have begun to show exhaustion in momentum, heightening prospects of a pullback. We have already seen five days of successive closes above the upper Bollinger band. Given these in the background and the distance between the 20-day SMA, we are rooting for a mean reversion down move in the next week.Jain Resource shares were the worst weekly losers. Are the charts indicating more pain ahead?A doji with a long lower wick points to bulls regaining dominance after four successive days of a downtrend. Oscillators have also begun to show positive divergence, raising the odds of at least a relief rally next week.Nifty Pharma index hit a fresh 52-week high this week. Are we in for a longer upcycle?Nifty Pharma is showing signs of a short-term corrective phase after an extended upmove. On the weekly chart, the formation of a bearish inverted pin bar doji near higher levels indicates exhaustion of buying momentum. This is further reinforced by the weekly RSI hovering near the overbought zone, suggesting limited upside headroom and increasing vulnerability to profit booking.On the daily timeframe, momentum indicators have already started to turn negative. The RSI is slipping from overbought territory, indicating fading bullish strength. Additionally, the formation of a bearish Marubozu candle highlights strong selling pressure and confirms the initiation of a near-term pullback. Furthermore, derivative data indicate that around 90% of the stock futures have witnessed long unwinding, indicating some corrective move next week.Price action also suggests that the index may drift lower in the coming sessions. Immediate support is placed near 24,400, below which the decline could extend towards the 24,060-23,970 zone, where stronger support is likely to emerge.Overall, the setup points to a short-term bearish bias, with the ongoing decline likely to be a corrective move within the broader uptrend unless key supports are decisively breached.Give us your top ideas for the week.SURYAROSNI | View: Buy | Target: 260 | SL: 231SURYAROSNI is exhibiting a short-term bullish setup following a healthy consolidation phase. The stock has managed to hold above key support levels and is showing signs of base formation around the 235 zone. Recent price action indicates a gradual recovery, supported by improving momentum on the daily chart.The RSI has cooled off from higher levels and is stabilising around the mid-zone, suggesting renewed upside potential without being overbought. Additionally, prices are attempting to regain upward traction after a brief pullback, indicating buying interest at lower levels supported by a weekly hammer candle.A sustained move above the immediate resistance zone could trigger fresh momentum, paving the way for a rally towards 260 levels in the near term.Traders may consider a buy-on-dips approach, keeping a strict stop-loss at 231 to manage downside risk.CHOLAFIN | View: Buy | Target: 1,605 | SL: 1,480CHOLAFIN is exhibiting a short-term bullish setup after forming a base near the 1,480-1,500 zone. The stock has shown a strong rebound from recent lows, indicating accumulation at lower levels and improving price structure on the daily chart.Momentum indicators support the positive bias, with the RSI stabilising and turning upward from lower levels and the formation of a weekly bullish pinbar doji, suggesting the strengthening of buying interest. Price action also reflects a higher low formation, which points towards a gradual uptrend continuation.A sustained move above the immediate resistance band could trigger further upside momentum. In the near term, the stock is likely to move towards 1,604.Traders can maintain a bullish stance with a stop-loss at 1,480, as a breach below this level may weaken the current setup. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times.)