Saturday’s Latin American Pulse opens with Javier Milei pricing his 2027 re-election into Argentina’s retenciones schedule — wheat and barley cut unconditionally from June, soy gradual from January 2027 only “if we are re-elected” — three Colombian polls converging on Iván Cepeda‘s runoff ceiling eight days before the first round, ExxonMobil entering advanced talks to return to six Venezuelan oil fields, Bolivia’s management pivot inverting within 48 hours as the COB conditions dialogue on amnesty for fugitive Mario Argollo, Brazil’s STF clearing the 933km Ferrogrão railway 8-1, and José Raúl Mulino freezing electricity sales to Costa Rica. Today’s intelligence brief tracks six institutional decisions inside the same 24 hours.
01 · Argentina — Milei Prices the 2027 Re-Election Into the Retenciones Schedule Bullish
At the Bolsa de Cereales 172nd anniversary Thursday, Javier Milei cut wheat and barley retenciones from 7.5% to 5.5% effective June unconditionally, pledged a gradual soy reduction from January 2027 “if we are re-elected,” and zeroed retenciones on auto, petrochemical and machinery from July 2026 to June 2027. Fiscal cost runs $580m–$687m per Romano and LCG estimates. The cosecha 2025/26 hit a record 163.2 million tonnes, up 21.25%. The MERVAL gave back 1.08% to 2,846,220 — the market reading the announcement as priced and the soy condition as midterm tail.
