WARSAW AND WASHINGTON—The Trump administration can land a deal that US administrations have sought since the 1950s: One for an effective NATO alliance with greater European military contributions, something this administration has called “NATO 3.0.” But Washington risks blowing it up.
In the last few weeks, without adequate internal or ally consultations, the Trump administration has made a dizzying array of force posture decisions completely disconnected from a real-world assessment of the security threats facing the United States and NATO.
For those keeping track, the administration has announced a reduction in the brigades earmarked for Europe, from four to three, with possibly more reductions in store. It also canceled the deployment of a long-range fires battalion to Germany and outlined plans to pull out five thousand US troops from the country (seemingly more out of pique at the German chancellor’s criticism on Iran than strategic calculation). The administration also stopped a planned rotation of a US brigade to Poland.
Then late Thursday, US President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States would send an additional five thousand troops to Poland, without specifying where those troops would come from. This about-face comes on top of Trump’s complaints about Europe’s lack of support for the US in Iran and threats that the US might not show up for Europe’s NATO allies.
