The winner of CBS’ “Survivor 50” was announced live on air on May 20.
But traders on prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket — and “Survivor” fans exposed to reports of the fluctuating odds — saw Aubry Bracco’s payday coming before the season even began.
When a “Survivor 50” market opened on Kalshi six weeks before the Feb. 25 season premiere, preliminary trades forecast Bracco to have a 61% chance of winning — nearly double the odds of her next closest competitor. By Jan. 28, she had jumped to 83%. And on Feb. 28, just days after the premiere and before Bracco had accumulated much screen time, a user bet $45,500 she would win the season (which later earned them a profit of $4,500). By market’s close on the day of the finale, a staggering $32.7 million in wagers had lifted her odds to 97%. (On Polymarket, “Survivor 50” predictions only reached a trade volume of $1.9 million, but the odds followed a similar trajectory.)
For anyone following along, Bracco seemed all but certain to be crowned the Sole Survivor. Minutes before the finale, Kalshi goaded in a push notification: “Is the island already decided?”
A push notification Kalshi sent to users minutes before the “Survivor 50” finale.
