If you thought Donald Trump had asserted himself globally this year, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
The political ground is shifting beneath the US President’s feet, and the early evidence is that he is going to lose. His approval rating sits somewhere between 32 and 38 per cent, depending on the poll, the lowest of either term, with disapproval approaching nearly two-thirds of all Americans. The generic congressional ballot has Democrats up by an average of five to seven points, and statistician Nate Silver’s team notes that the picture is “virtually identical” to where it was at this point in the 2018 cycle, before Trump suffered a devastating midterm defeat.
Trump’s own pollsters can read these numbers as well as I can.
The reasons for the collapse are mysterious to no one. War and tariff-driven inflation have eaten away at the President’s standing on the economy, where Democrats are now more trusted to handle costs for the first time since 2010. Americans are suffering. Yet the White House seems to manufacture a new presidential vanity project each week to show how far out of touch Trump is — a gilded billion-dollar White House ballroom, a triumphal arch built in his honour to dwarf the Lincoln Memorial, repainted reflecting pools, renovated fountains, his face on coins and passports and buildings, and a $1.8bn (£1.3bn) slush fund to gift taxpayer dollars to Trump allies who’ve been criminally prosecuted. Trump’s domestic agenda is, in short, a radioactive mess for Republicans to run on.
