Over the past 12 months, the share price of technology company Intel has skyrocketed roughly 400%. Why is Intel delivering such extraordinary returns, and is the stock’s performance sustainable?The top line is that Intel is experiencing a turnaround because of new management, significantly improved operating performance, and an injection of capital from the administration of President Donald Trump. In addition, Intel is making progress in improving its semiconductor foundry business. Under CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who took control of Intel last year, the company is delivering better-than-expected earnings and revenue. A major reason for the improvement in results is a resurgence in demand for the company’s core business: designing and manufacturing central processing units. A CPU is the brain of a computer. It executes the instructions that keep the machine operating.CPUs are essential for agentic artificial intelligence, which runs AI models in real time for users. Demand for agentic AI is exploding. Consequently, the long-term outlook for Intel’s core CPU business appears positive.
Regardless, a closer look at Intel’s story makes the current share price suspect. The most optimistic estimates for the company’s 2026 earnings are around $1.20 per share. So even if Intel delivers earnings at the high end of analyst expectations, the stock, at its current price of roughly $120 per share, is trading at approximately 100 times projected earnings. Unless the long-term outlook is truly extraordinary, the stock is clearly overvalued.
