Aliko Dangote’s massive refinery complex near Lagos has emerged as one of the main drivers behind Nigeria’s first sovereign credit rating upgrade in 14 years, with S&P Global Ratings describing the project as a growing stabilising force for the country’s economy amid global energy market disruptions.
The $20 billion refinery, which has ramped up to near its 650,000 barrels-per-day capacity, was highlighted by S&P as a key factor behind Nigeria’s long-term sovereign rating upgrade to B from B- on May 15.
The agency said the refinery is helping cut fuel imports, strengthen foreign exchange reserves, improve the country’s current account position, and shield Africa’s largest economy from supply shocks linked to the Middle East conflict.
“Domestic supply helps ensure the availability of refined fuel, gas, and fertiliser for the Nigerian market, providing a buffer against the global and regional supply constraints caused by the Middle East conflict,” S&P said in the report.
Nigeria’s gross foreign exchange reserves climbed to $50 billion by March 2026, up from $33 billion in 2023, while the country’s current account surplus is projected to rise to 5.8% of GDP this year.
