⏳ Reading Time: 6 minutesAs we do every month, our Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of Research, Roberto Rossignoli, takes stock of the cryptocurrency market. The spotlight is on Bitcoin’s performance, which has reached 20 million mined units, marking a crucial step towards its maximum programmed scarcity, and on significant regulatory and institutional developments.
March was largely driven by macro developments linked to the Middle East war. The Iran conflict, and the grip on the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude toward $116 per barrel and compressed risk appetite across every asset class.
On March 18, the Federal Reserve – through the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), the body responsible for setting US interest rates – decided to keep rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%.
However, the overall tone was more hawkish than expected: policymakers revised their 2026 inflation outlook higher (to 2.7%), and the dot plot – which reflects individual members’ rate expectations – continues to point to just one rate cut by year-end.
Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve – the US central bank – described the outlook as one of “elevated uncertainty”, a signal markets interpreted as support for a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. In the aftermath, Bitcoin fell by around 5%, while the Dollar Index moved back above 100, creating additional pressure for digital assets. This marked the eighth of the last nine FOMC meetings after which Bitcoin declined within 24 hours of the announcement.
