As the final weekend of the Premier League season approaches, Chelsea are dealing in degrees of consolation.Will it be qualification for the Europa League, another Conference League campaign, or no European football at all next season? Champions League football is gone, but thanks to Tuesday’s win over Tottenham, a bottom-half finish in the Premier League can be ruled out too, barring a huge goal difference swing with Newcastle, Everton or Fulham.The tussle Chelsea now find themselves in is with Brighton and Hove Albion, Brentford and Sunday’s opponents, Sunderland, with several potential outcomes in play:
If Chelsea win they finish no lower than eighth (Conference League qualification), but will jump to seventh (Europa League qualification) if Brighton fail to beat Manchester United
If Chelsea draw they finish eighth if Brentford fail to beat Liverpool, but they fall to ninth (no European football) if Brentford win
If Chelsea lose they fall to ninth below Sunderland regardless of what else happens, and could fall to 10th depending on Brentford’s result
According to Opta’s supercomputer, Chelsea’s likeliest finishing position is eighth (39.7 per cent), though they still have a chance of seventh (27.4 per cent). But which outcome should incoming manager Xabi Alonso be rooting for?My colleague Simon Johnson has already done a good job of analysing the pros and cons of Chelsea being in Europe in 2026-27. The data from recent history is very clear: having no continental commitments to clutter his midweeks would be a huge benefit to Alonso next term.Since the start of 2015-16, there have been six instances of traditional ‘Big Six’ clubs (yes, this framing could look ludicrous if Tottenham are relegated this weekend, but in terms of financial resources and squad strength, it remains the best form of comparison to Chelsea) falling out of European competition entirely. It has happened to Chelsea twice and once apiece to Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool and Spurs.The two Chelsea instances are 2016-17 and 2023-24, which immediately followed their two worst finishes of the Premier League era (10th in 2015-16 and 12th in 2022-23). Antonio Conte won the title in emphatic fashion in 2016-17, racking up 93 points. Mauricio Pochettino missed out on Champions League qualification in 2023-24 and left the following summer, but he still improved the team by six places and 19 points.Conte won the Premier League in 2016-17, when Chelsea were not in Europe (Michael Regan/Getty Images)Liverpool jumped from eighth to fourth without European competition in Jurgen Klopp’s first full season as manager in 2016-17. Arsenal jumped from eighth to fifth without European competition under Mikel Arteta in 2021-22. Tottenham did the same under Ange Postecoglou in 2023-24. Manchester United have made the most of a lack of continental distractions this season and sit third under Michael Carrick, 12 places higher than they finished in 2024-25.In all of those six instances, the clubs involved made significant and often huge jumps in both Premier League position and points the following year. On average, the gain for a ‘Big Six’ club in a season without any form of European football is six spots in the table and 19.7 points.
