World·NewFormer Cuban president Raúl Castro will be "keeping his head down," experts say, as questions swirl over whether the U.S. plans to take him by force and bring him to American soil to face charges over an incident from three decades ago. Federal prosecutors announced criminal charges against Castro Wednesday in the 1996 downing of two small planes flown by Miami-based exile group Brothers to the Rescue.Experts say Raúl Castro will be 'keeping his head down' as U.S. officials are mum on next stepsKevin Maimann · CBC News · Posted: May 21, 2026 4:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 21 minutes agoListen to this articleEstimated 5 minutesThe audio version of this article is generated by AI-based technology. Mispronunciations can occur. We are working with our partners to continually review and improve the results.Acting U.S. attorney general Todd Blanche, centre, speaks at an event where federal prosecutors announced charges against former Cuban President Raúl Castro Wednesday. Observers worry the U.S. is gearing up for military action against Cuba. (Rebecca Blackwell/The Associated Press)Former Cuban president Raúl Castro will be "keeping his head down," experts say, as questions swirl over whether the U.S. will take him by force and bring him to American soil to face charges over an incident from three decades ago. Federal prosecutors announced criminal charges against Castro Wednesday in the 1996 downing of two small planes flown by Miami-based exile group Brothers to the Rescue. Castro, who turns 95 next month, was Cuba's defence minister at the time. Acting U.S. attorney general Todd Blanche said Castro was indicted so he could be brought to the U.S. to "face justice" in front of a jury, though he didn't offer details on how that might happen. "We expect that he will show up here, by his own will or by another way," Blanche said. The charges, which were secretly filed by a grand jury in April, included murder and destruction of an airplane. Five Cuban military pilots were also charged. The indictment has evoked the January capture of then-Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro — a military operation during which the U.S. killed dozens of military and security personnel. WATCH | Officials announce Castro's indictment:U.S. indicts former Cuban president, charged with murderMay 20|Duration 3:11The Trump administration has indicted Raúl Castro, former Cuban president and brother to the late Fidel Castro, on murder charges and conspiracy to kill U.S. nationals.Peter Kornbluh, Cuba specialist with the U.S. National Security Archive at George Washington University, says Cuba will take the indictment as an "extreme warning," calling the move a "quantum step" toward military aggression."It's certainly not out of the question that they will do a snatch raid in Cuba. Raúl Castro will certainly be keeping his head down from this moment on," Kornbluh told CBC News."I think we're living in a very grim moment in which the dark cloud of possible U.S. acts of war against Cuba are coming."Shades of VenezuelaU.S. President Donald Trump has been threatening military action in Cuba ever since U.S. forces captured Maduro, the Cuban government's longtime ally. After ousting the Venezuelan leader, the White House ordered a blockade that choked off fuel shipments to Cuba, leading to severe blackouts, food shortages and an economic collapse across the island. Since Maduro's capture, Trump has ratcheted up talk of regime change in Cuba after pledging earlier this year to conduct a "friendly takeover" of the country if its leadership did not open its economy to American investment and kick out U.S. adversaries. Trump looking for a 'win' on Cuba as Raúl Castro indictment expectedIn spies he trusts? In Cuba, Trump looks again to CIA chief, rather than a diplomat, to deliver a messageOn Wednesday, he brushed off a question from reporters about whether he'd launch an operation to extricate Castro like he did with Maduro. "I don't wanna say that," he said. When asked if he'd take further steps to up the pressure on the Cuban regime, Trump said there "won't be escalation.""I don't think there needs to be. Look, the place is falling apart. It's a mess," he said.WATCH | U.S. military action in Cuba 'not out of the question,' says analyst:U.S. snatch raid in Cuba 'not out of the question' following Castro indictment: analyst7 hours ago|Duration 3:30Peter Kornbluh, Cuba specialist with the National Security Archive in Washington, D.C., said the U.S. indictment of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro on Wednesday could be seen as a 'quantum step' toward military aggression against the Latin American country.'I'd be really worried about it'But Kornbluh said even after months of the Trump administration "turning the screws of economic warfare against Cuba," the Cuban leadership won't just turn Castro over, and the former leader likely won't surrender either."As any self-respecting country would do, [Cuba] has resisted the dictates from the United States to change its government. And that is why you have increasingly witnessed signals that the United States is moving towards a military solution rather than just economic pressure," he said. Guy Lewis, who was the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of Florida when the 1996 shoot-down happened, says he was "very pleased" to see the indictment after the federal government worked for years to nail down the charges against Castro. Cuba suffers partial grid failure hours after minister reveals country out of fuel oil, dieselCBC NEWS IN CUBACubans say every day is a struggle for survival as they face blackouts, water and fuel shortagesHe said military action against Cuba is "a reasonable possibility." "I think there's a pretty good shot that if I was Raúl's lawyer, I'd be worried about it," he told CBC's As It Happens. "I'd be really worried about it."Trump's first administration indicted Maduro on drug-trafficking charges and used that to justify removing him from power and whisking him and his wife, Cilia Flores, to New York to face trial.U.S., Venezuela re-establish diplomatic ties 2 months after Maduro's captureWho is Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela's recently captured president?Maduro has been charged in federal court in Manhattan ‌with narcoterrorism conspiracy and other offences tied to alleged drug trafficking. He has pleaded not guilty and is still being held in a Brooklyn jail with no trial date. On Tuesday, Reuters reported that government sources said the U.S. is pursuing a second criminal investigation into Maduro that has been ongoing for months. Cuban president respondsCuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel pushed back on Wednesday, saying in a post on X that the Castro indictment "only reveals the arrogance and frustration that the representatives of the empire feel toward the unyielding resolve of the Cuban Revolution and the unity and moral strength of its leadership." He called the move "a political maneuver, devoid of any legal foundation," with the intent of justifying military aggression against Cuba. WATCH | Cubans react to the charges:Cubans in Havana reject Castro indictment by U.S.: 'It makes no sense'10 hours ago|Duration 0:57In Havana on Wednesday, residents condemned the U.S. indictment of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro, who was charged in connection with a 1996 incident in which Cuban jets shot down two civilian planes carrying exiles, killing four. 'At that time, they had their defence and their right to defend their airspace,' said Rosmery Pena, a legal adviser for self-employed workers.In Havana, residents who spoke with Agence France-Presse were defiant and said the charges "make no sense." "They [the U.S.] are not going to come in here or do anything, because we'll be waiting for them," said Rene Sierra, a 64-year-old construction worker. "We are not Venezuela. Here, everyone knows how to shoot, from children to adults. Let them come — we'll destroy everything." ABOUT THE AUTHORKevin Maimann is a senior writer for CBC News based in Edmonton. He has covered a wide range of topics for publications including VICE, the Toronto Star, Xtra Magazine and the Edmonton Journal. You can reach Kevin by email at kevin.maimann@cbc.ca.With files from The Associated Press, Reuters and CBC News