The global economy is hurtling towards a foundational supply-side crisis that few in the policy world seem prepared to confront. At the heart of this looming disruption lies copper, a metal that has transitioned from a mere industrial commodity to the indispensable bedrock of the 21st century’s dual ambitions: the energy transition and the digital revolution. Yet as demand surges the structural conditions of supply are failing to keep pace, creating what can only be described as a systemic risk to global industrial stability. For South African producers the challenge is no longer merely local or operational; it is part of a profound global disconnect. According to S&P Global, the copper market is projected to face a staggering 10-million metric tonne shortfall by 2040. This represents nearly 24% of projected demand. Even if recycling efforts double as expected the gap remains existential for the industries of the future. To understand why this “copper crunch” is so perilous one must examine the following interlocking factors: The drivers of demand are now structural rather than cyclical. In the past, copper demand was largely a proxy for Chinese construction and global manufacturing cycles. Now though, consumption is being propelled by the non-negotiable requirements of AI, defence spending and electrification. AI-driven data centres and electric vehicle (EV) infrastructure are voracious consumers of the metal. Without a radical shift in supply trajectories, global production is expected to peak at 33-million metric tonnes in 2030 and then decline, just as demand is forecast to surge by 50%. Copper is thus becoming the enabler of, and the primary bottleneck for, the global “green” and “digital” shifts. The limits of substitution are becoming clear. It is true that some sectors are adapting. In heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems aluminium substitution has reached about 40% of global units. Similarly, efficiency gains in electric vehicle motor design could reduce copper intensity per vehicle by 30%-40% by 2030. Yet these gains are marginal relative to the total scale of demand. Aluminium, while a viable alternative in some applications, carries significant performance penalties; its conductors must be 1.6 times thicker than copper to achieve equivalent conductivity, adding weight and complexity that many high-performance systems cannot tolerate. The supply side is plagued by chronic underinvestment. We are now witnessing a “mine-less” expansion. No major new mines are slated to open in the near term and the quality of existing ore is in steady decline. The International Energy Agency estimates that meeting demand will require $350bn in investment by 2040. Yet even with such an enormous capital injection the world would still face a 30% shortfall by 2035. This is not a market that can be balanced by price alone; it requires a fundamental rethink of mining sustainability and geopolitical co-operation. For South Africa this environment presents a stark choice. The country possesses the reserves and heritage to be a central player in this new era. Higher prices are already reviving interest in brownfield projects and new discoveries. However, the domestic environment, characterised by energy insecurity, water scarcity and infrastructure decay, remains a formidable barrier. Yet, South Africa’s mining industry continues to grapple with deep-rooted structural constraints, including delays in exploration approvals, cumbersome licensing procedures for junior mining companies, inadequate battery-grade processing capacity and a shortage of specialised expertise in hydrometallurgy and chemical processing. These challenges are compounded by growing international competition for investment, especially from countries offering more streamlined and efficient permitting frameworks. The widening disconnects between our technological ambitions and material realities are unsustainable. If we do not secure long-term production sustainability the “age of AI” and the “green transition” may stall before they have truly begun. For South African producers the imperative is to move beyond short-term survival and embrace a strategic role in securing the global supply chain. The alternative is a world of permanent shortages and stunted growth. • Mabasa, a development economist, is executive manager in the office of the deputy minister of mineral & petroleum resources.