Wall Street Is Pricing AI's Upside. Nobody Is Pricing This.

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Editor’s note: “Wall Street Is Pricing AI’s Upside. Nobody Is Pricing This.” was previously published in May 2026 with the title, “This Is How the AI Boom Ends.” It has since been updated to include the most relevant information available.

The last time capital flooded into technology at the pace we’re seeing today, the Nasdaq lost 78% of its value. It didn’t recover for 15 years.

That was the Dot Com Boom. This is the AI Boom. And right now, it looks identical.

Nvidia (NVDA) is minting money. Jensen Huang believes Blackwell chips are a “one-trillion-dollar” opportunity. Broadcom (AVGO) and Marvell (MRVL) are printing records. Oracle (ORCL) just reported $553 billion in remaining performance obligations. The hyperscalers — Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META) — are spending more than half a trillion dollars this year alone on AI infrastructure. Both OpenAI and Anthropic are eyeing $1 trillion IPOs. SpaceX is approaching a $2 trillion IPO.