The internet is full is misinformation, conspiracies, and lies. Each week, we tackle the misunderstandings that are going viral.
This story seems straight out of a Hollywood thriller: Up to a dozen scientists working on some of the U.S.’s most advanced and sensitive aerospace and nuclear programs have disappeared or died in mysterious ways over the last five years. The FBI is working with the Department of Energy, the Department of Defense, and local law enforcement to find answers. The House Oversight Committee launched its own investigation. Congressman Eric Burlison said the mystery has “all the hallmarks of a foreign operation.” The president called it “pretty serious stuff." Congressman James Comer suggested someone is targeting the nation’s nuclear program. Rep. Tim Burchett alleged a cover-up of UAP activity. Some say it’s aimed at people with knowledge of American security secrets. Or maybe it’s to cover up evidence of time travel. So what’s really going on here?Literally nothing. This is a cobbled-together collection of unrelated deaths and disappearances. As a conspiracy theory, it is, as Daniel Engber pointed out in The Atlantic, "unbelievably dumb."
Scientists are dying, but so is everyone elseThere are around two million scientists in the U.S., and, as science writer and debunker Mick West pointed out, over 700,000 people hold top-secret clearances in the U.S. aerospace and nuclear sectors. If 10 or so of this group had died or disappeared in inexplicable ways over five years, it wouldn’t be statistically meaningful, but this theory is even more stupid than that. Many people on the list didn’t seem to have top-secret clearances, and many weren’t scientists. The list includes a construction foreman who once worked at Los Alamos National Lab, a former custodian at the Kansas City National Security Campus, and an administrative assistant. And there are concrete explanations for almost all of these deaths and disappearances. The list includes physicist Ning Li who died at 78 of Alzheimers and Carl Grillmair who was killed in a home invasion by a man with a violent history who had a prior disagreement with Grillmair that had nothing to do with science. The missing scientist conspiracy theories have all the hallmarks of apophenia (people perceiving meaningful connections in random data) and cherry-picking, and even if we give a lot of credit to the most “mysterious” entries on the list, the theory gets muddy very quickly. The strange life and death of Amy EskridgeThe death that arguably supports the “mysterious assassinations” theory most strongly is that of Amy Eskridge. A fringe scientist who founded the Institute for Exotic Science in Huntsville, Alabama to study anti-gravity technology, Eskridge died at 34 of a (supposedly) self-inflicted gunshot wound in 2022, after telling friends she was being stalked and targeted by unknown forces. The conspiracy theorists’ line about Eskridge is that she was a brilliant scientist who made a breakthrough discovery in anti-gravity research and was taken out by mysterious pro-gravity forces before she could go public. It’s a compelling narrative on the surface, but when you unwind it, you find the kind of half-truths and exaggerations you always find when you look into conspiracy theories. What actually is a scientist? Whether Eskridge belongs in a list of scientists in the first place is debatable. Some online have categorized her as an important researcher with a background in physics, but her highest degree was a bachelors in biochemistry, and she doesn't seem to have published any research in peer-reviewed scientific journals. Eskridge didn’t have the kind of professional background that suggests access to top-secret government programs, either. Maybe Eskridge’s gravity research was too esoteric to be accepted by the "mainstream science," but even that is questionable. Judging from this public presentation (and accompanying slides) that Eskridge gave not long before she died, she didn’t seem close to any kind of breakthrough. Her speech points out that you can’t build an anti-gravity machine without first developing a theoretical framework for how one could actually work, and that that theory doesn’t exist right now. This is exactly what the scientific establishment would say.
