The explosive semiconductor rally of 2026 is running into the kind of historical technical hurdles that usually flag trouble ahead.
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SMH) has gained roughly 50% year to date and 35% since the April 7 U.S.-Iran ceasefire reignited the AI trade.
Beneath that move, Bank of America’s technical desk just sent up a warning flare.
BofA technical analyst Paul Ciana said in a note on Monday that the ETF’s 14-week relative strength index – a momentum indicator used by technical analysts to measure whether a rally may be becoming overstretched – closed above 80 for a second consecutive week — an all-time high, only the fifth instance since 2012.
The fund now trades roughly 150% above its 200-week moving average, exceeding prior peaks of 100-108% in 2021 and 2024.
