NEW YORK (AP) — Nationwide enrollment in the Affordable Care Act health insurance marketplace could plummet by nearly 5 million people this year, shrinking the number of participants in the program by more than 20%, according to a new analysis from the healthcare research nonprofit KFF.Those who remain covered are also paying more for healthcare than they used to, the group found, with the average enrollee’s deductible growing by more than $1,000 and the average monthly premium payment rising by $65.“No matter how you slice it, people are paying more,” said Cynthia Cox, a vice president of KFF who co-authored the report.The projected drop-off, much starker than initial federal data suggested, reveals how rising health costs, in part due to the Jan. 1 expiration of subsidies that had helped the vast majority of enrollees pay for their coverage, are forcing Americans to make tough decisions mid-year about whether to keep or go without health coverage.It’s an issue that could play heavily in this year’s midterm elections, where voter concerns about economic stressors have taken top billing in many of the most competitive races around the nation.

Enrollment is declining nationwideACA enrollment could fall from 22.3 million Americans in 2025 to around 17.5 million this year, according to KFF’s report, which relied on federal and state data as well as findings from the actuarial firm Wakely Consulting Group.That’s a significant drop for the government’s flagship subsidized health insurance program for working-age Americans who don’t qualify for Medicaid. In recent years, ACA plans have become a popular choice for gig workers, farmers, ranchers, hairstylists and others who don’t get their health coverage through an employer.