Russia’s inflation slowdown is not yet changing how consumers perceive rising prices, according to a Central Bank-commissioned survey, underscoring a challenge for policymakers despite official data showing inflation cooling more quickly than expected.
Russians’ estimates of price growth over the past year rose to 15% in May from 14.6% a month earlier, while expectations for inflation over the next 12 months edged up to 13% from 12.9%, according to a survey conducted by the Public Opinion Foundation (FOM) for the Central Bank.
The findings suggest households remain unconvinced by signs of easing price pressures, even as official data point to a sharp slowdown in inflation and a stronger ruble. Inflation expectations are closely watched by Russia’s policymakers because they can influence consumer behavior and complicate efforts to bring inflation under control.
Rosstat data showed consumer prices rose just 0.14% in April, the lowest increase for that month since records began, while inflation was flat in some individual weeks. During the first 12 days of May — when the survey was conducted — prices rose only 0.06%, while the ruble strengthened.
“Absolutely cursed inflation expectations. Maybe someone jinxed them,” Sberbank chief economist Alexander Isakov joked on social media.
