Two straight sessions of gains have lifted sentiment, but Rohit Srivastava, Founder of Strike Money Analytics and Indiacharts, is not reading it as a trend change. "This bounce still looks like a counter-trend move in the decline we have been seeing since the start of May," he said in an interview with ET Now. "We still cannot say with certainty that we are out of the woods."His technical roadmap: the Nifty can stretch toward 23,880, roughly the 20-day moving average, but is likely to face selling pressure somewhere in that zone before turning lower again. The next meaningful test is 23,350, which he identifies as a critical support level that will determine the market's next directional move."I will put odds on it breaking lower than 23,350 and heading somewhere below 23,000," says SrivastavaETMarkets.comBank Nifty adds to the cautionThe weakness in financials reinforces his bearish near-term view. Bank Nifty has not managed to cross even the 20-hour intraday average around 53,730 - a signal that the sector, which typically leads market recoveries, is not participating in this bounce. Without financial stocks providing a lift, any Nifty rally remains on shaky ground.IT: Currency tailwind, but charts tell a different storyThe IT sector has bounced sharply, with rupee depreciation providing a visible catalyst. But Srivastava cautions against reading too much into it. Technically, names across the spectrum, from the tier-II outperformers like Persistent Systems and HCL Tech to the index heavyweights, are showing signs of a long-term downtrend that has not yet reversed.MORE STORIES FOR YOU✕« Back to recommendation storiesI don't want to see these stories becauseThey are not relevant to meThey disrupt the reading flowOthersSUBMITSrivastava's warning: "If you take a 6-month or 12-month view, you will still see lower prices in the technology space. Do not be in a hurry to gobble up IT stocks just on the basis of currency weakness."What investors are witnessing, he argues, is a textbook short-covering rally after a sharp fall, not fresh institutional buying. The underlying structural problems in IT demand will take considerably longer to resolve, and the sector's long-term trend line has not yet turned upward.Bottom line: For traders and investors, Srivastava's framework is straightforward: use any move toward 23,880 as a selling or caution zone, watch 23,350 as the number that decides whether the market stabilizes or accelerates lower, and avoid chasing IT on a currency trade alone.