Spot gold, following a weekly decline of 3.7% to $4540 in the week ending May 15, started the week on a weak footing. (AI image)Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are unlikely to rise too much unless crude oil prices come down for a longer term duration, says Praveen Singh, Head Currencies and Commodities, Mirae Asset ShareKhan.Gold Performance:Spot gold, following a weekly decline of 3.7% to $4540 in the week ending May 15, started the week on a weak footing as it tumbled to the cycle-low support at $4480 in the Asian session on Monday. However, the metal erased its losses to trade higher as the day wore on as Iran's semi-official news Tasnim reported that US has proposed a temporary waiver of sanctions on Iran's oil, which has been one of the key demands by Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.Spot gold rose 1% for the day to $4584 before retreating as doubts over waiver emerged.At the time of writing, the shiny metal was trading with a gain of 0.2% at $4547 as the US Dollar was slightly weaker due to yields pulling back slightly from the day’s highs.In the week ending May 15, gold prices tumbled as oil, Dollar and yields surged.Oil and geopolitics:Doubts over waiver of sanctions over Iran's oil emerged as Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency, citing a source close to the negotiating team, reported that despite changes in the latest US draft proposal, fundamental differences remain, as Tehran views US proposals including excessive demands and unrealistic positions by Washington. The Source added that Iran’s frozen assets must be returned to the Iranian people “in a clear and guaranteed manner” following the military operation against Iran.Oil prices recovered further as the US President Trump said that Iran's new proposal is insufficient for a deal. He said that the proposal lacked detailed commitments over suspending Uranium enrichment or handing over its enriched pile of enriched uranium.Earlier on Sunday, drones targeted a nuclear facility in UAE that prompted the US President to express his frustration over Iran as he said that clock is ticking for Iran. Iran did not make any public comments on attacks, though.Brent oil futures traded between $106.87/barrel and $112 on Monday. At the time of writing this article, oil at $110.70 was up by 1.5% for the day.Data roundup:US's NAHB Housing Market Index (May), released on May 18, came in at 37 Vs the estimate of 34.China's data released on Monday were largely disappointing. April retail sales increased 0.2% y-o-y, trailing the estimate of 2% as industrial production rose by 4.1% in April Vs the estimate of 6% y-o-y. The silver lining was easing pace of decline in used home and new home prices. New-home prices in 70 cities dropped 0.19% from March, the smallest drop in a year, and resale home values decreased 0.23%, the slowest fall since March 2025 as local governments have added measures to support the housing market, including easing homebuying restrictions and granting subsidies.ETFs and COMEX inventory:As of May 15, total known global gold ETF holdings stood at 98.78 MOz, down by 0.17MOz YTD, though up by 0.14MOz for the week.Registered COMEX gold inventory stood at 15.70 MOz, down by 0.12 MOz for the week.CFTC positioning:As per the latest CFTC data, money managers increased their bullish gold bets by 4,963 net-long positions to 100,627 -- the most bullish in eight weeks. Long-only positions rose 4,403 lots to 129,070 in the week ending May 12 --the highest in eight weeks.Short-only positions fell 560 lots to 28,443 – the lowest in six weeks.US Dollar Index and yields:At the time of writing this article, the US Dollar Index was trading 0.20% lower at 99.20.Two-year yields, at 4.07% were flat after erasing the rise to 4.10%. Similarly, ten-year yields rose by 3 bps to a fresh one-year high of 4.63% before trading flat at 4.60%. Japan's ten-year yield hardened by 1 bps, while that of the UK fell by 3 bps to 5.14%.In the week ending May 15, government global bond selloff gathered pace on war-driven inflation concerns. Two- and ten-year US yields surged to the highest level in almost a year. Japan's 30-year yield hit 4% for the first time since the tenor's debut in 1999. Similarly, UK's 30-year gilt yields surged to a 28-year high as political uncertainty concerning leadership also weighed on the nation's bonds.The US Dollar Index closed with a gain of 0.47% at 99.28 on May 15 as it surged by 1.5% in the week.Upcoming data and events:Major US data on tap this week include March TIC flows (May 19), FOMC minutes of April 29 meeting (May 20), April Housing starts (May 21), May S&P Global US PMIs (May 21) and May final University of Michigan Sentiment and inflation expectations (May 22).Investors will also monitor Eurozone's and UK's May CPI (May 20) and May preliminary PMIs (May 21).Japan's April national CPI will be released on May 22.On May 22, the Fed Governor Waller will speak on economic outlook at Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.Considering the present environment, CPI data will be closely monitored by investors. Gold Price Outlook:Gold has been trading as a risk asset since the beginning of the Iran war on February 28 as safe haven bids have been trumped by quickly fading odds of a rate cut due to surge in oil prices.Now, investors see 50% probability of a Fed rate hike by the year-end, while they assess that the Fed rate hike could come as early as March 2026.As oil price remains elevated, firm Dollar and high yields will keep the upside limited in gold.In this scenario, unless oil prices come down on a concrete geopolitical development, selling into rallies with strict stop-loss is advisable. A breach of support at $4480 will open the way to $4345. Resistance is at $4610/$4670. Bullish USDINR poses a risk to short positions though.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.)