PremiumThe modest weakness of the past two trading days notwithstanding, the US equity market has continued to reach new highs entirely on the strength of the AI trade. Through Thursday, the S&P 500 had returned 10% YTD in 2026, with TMT (the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors plus AMZN and TSLA) accounting for 85% of the return. The S&P 500 excluding TMT has returned just 3% YTD. NVDA, which accounts for 9% of S&P 500 market cap weight, has contributed 20% of the aggregate S&P 500 YTD return.
"It's All One Big Trade": Momentum Euphoria Is Cracking, Here's How Goldman Is Hedging The Coming Hangover
"Sharp Momentum rallies that have occurred with the S&P 500 at or near a high have generally preceded weaker subsequent equity market returns. These episodes included mid-1998, late 1999, and late 2021." - Ben Snider, Goldman Sachs
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