Thailand's first-quarter gross domestic product data due Monday is expected to show that growth has slowed. Private consumption likely moderated, as fiscal stimulus support waned, said ANZ Research's Kausani Basak, noting the tourism sector's revenue also contracted. "Going forward, Thailand's tourism sector will remain a drag on growth as the geopolitical conflict persists," ANZ said.
In Malaysia, its inflation print and trade data will also be closely watched. Higher fuel prices could push April's inflation reading slightly higher to 1.9% from 1.7% in March, as most of the surge in global crude oil prices has been absorbed by the government through fuel subsidies, Barclays said. Exports are expected to have stayed resilient in April, supported by robust chip demand.
In Indonesia, Bank Indonesia is expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, Citi analyst Helmi Arman said. That would mark a shift from a previously expected pause, with the revision driven by persistent forex market pressure, rising private sector dollar demand and the effects of policy measures currently in place waning. A larger hike may be unlikely, he said, as the central bank's inflation targets remain intact. A pause is also on the cards if the government issues significant foreign currency bonds, Citi said.
