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As the calendar was turning to May, my wife and her best friends from high school were trying to book a summer trip to Toronto. They’d be coming from New Orleans, Los Angeles, Seattle, Philadelphia, and Baltimore. While picking through the Google Flights options, several of them reached the daunting realization that their basic economy tickets would cost them somewhere between $600 and $700.
Confronted by this unpleasant reality, my wife asked me: Did I think it would make sense to hold off on booking in the hopes that the Iran war would reach a resolution, ships would once again sail freely through the Strait of Hormuz, the price of oil would fall, the price of jet fuel would follow, and the ticket cost of a crisp round trip across most of the continent would be less than $684?
