Two Years of Local AI on a Laptop: When Open Models Outpaced Moore's Law

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TL;DR

Between May 2024 and May 2026, the most expensive MacBook Pro you could buy stayed at 128 GB of unified memory. The hardware ceiling barely moved. But the smartest open-weight model you could actually run on it went from a score of 10 (Llama 3 70B) to 47 (DeepSeek V4 Flash on antirez's mixed-Q2 GGUF) on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index.

That is 4.7× in 24 months, or a doubling of intelligence every 10.7 months.

Moore's Law (transistor count) doubles every 24 months. Local open-weight AI on a laptop has been improving more than twice as fast as Moore's Law, on completely unchanged hardware.