Ukraine’s Business Recovery Index turned negative for the first time since March 2023, dropping to -0.11 in April as order portfolios collapsed to their shortest in months and medium-term uncertainty climbed, according to the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting’s (IER) 48th monthly New Monthly Enterprises Survey (NRES). The index tracks the pulse, expectations, and challenges of Ukrainian industrial enterprises during wartime, covering up to 500 enterprises across 21 regions. The reading comes as Ukraine’s central bank, the NBU, has cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.3% following a near-stall in the first quarter, and the State Statistics Service recorded a 0.5% year-on-year GDP contraction in Q1 2026.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. The index had hovered near zero for three months before turning negative. Forward demand also shrank: the average order portfolio collapsed to 2.9 months from 3.8 months in March – a new survey low. In a press release, IER Chief Executive Oksana Kuziakiv notes that 29% of enterprises are now operating with no forward orders at all. “The share of companies working effectively ‘from the wheel’ grew to 29%, as did the share of companies with orders only one to two months forward, to 33%. Meanwhile, the share of enterprises with order portfolios of six to 11 months almost halved, to 10%, which may signal caution among counterparties regarding medium-term commitments,” Kuziakiv is quoted as saying.